Chethana Janith, Jadetimes Staff
C. Janith is a Jadetimes news reporter and sub-editor covering science and geopolitics.
The deteriorating state of transatlantic relations is driving an increase in military expenditures and prompting a reassessment of geopolitical strategies across Europe.
However, for Europe to truly emerge as a formidable player in the future multipolar world and acquire strategic autonomy, it must also undertake a clear and decisive departure from its reliance on the United States.
Re-Arm Europe
On March 19, the European Union unveiled its new defence strategy, marking a significant shift in its approach to security. Historically reliant on the US for military support, the EU now finds itself facing growing vulnerabilities and a sense of betrayal following the Trump administration’s policies. The new plan, which allocates €800 billion for European defence in the coming years, aims to bolster the continent’s military capabilities. In announcing the strategy, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen underscored the changing security landscape, stating, “The era of the peace dividend is long gone.
The security architecture we once relied upon can no longer be taken for granted. Europe is ready to step up. We must invest in defence, strengthen our capabilities, and adopt a proactive approach to security.” Von der Leyen’s remarks were also notably pointed, as she emphasized the need for Europe to prioritize domestic defence procurement over reliance on foreign suppliers, thus urging European nations to invest in their military-industrial base and prevent further financial enrichment of the US defence sector.
At the moment, the EU’s dependence on the US is not only huge, but it has increased lately as well. So, beyond the rhetoric of ‘buying European’, the task facing EU leaders is by no means simple. In early March, a new report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute showed Europe’s increasing reliance on the US. NATO countries in Europe have more than doubled their arms imports between 2020 and 2024, with the US supplying over 64% of the total, up from 52% over the previous five-year period.
The state of Dependency and Vulnerability
This issue extends beyond the simple transaction of buying and selling weapon systems. When European nations procure military technology from the US, they effectively grant Washington the power to halt operations at its discretion. This vulnerability is not limited to the EU but also affects traditional allies like the UK. Take, for example, the UK’s Trident nuclear deterrence program, which consists of four Vanguard-class nuclear-powered submarines. Although the UK retains operational independence in terms of control and decision-making regarding the launch of these systems, it remains heavily reliant on the US for the underlying nuclear technologies. These technologies, essential to the Trident system, are designed by the US and leased to the UK through Lockheed Martin.
At present, there is no alternative to this arrangement. In a hypothetical scenario where the UK found itself in a military conflict with Russia, the US could influence the UK’s actions by leveraging its control over critical maintenance and support for the Trident system. Washington would do to prevent the UK from doing anything that might sabotage the Ukraine deal. The UK’s dependence on US support underscores the risks of relying on foreign-made defence systems, particularly in scenarios where political considerations may intersect with military needs.
This serves as a crucial lesson that European leaders must take to heart as they strive for a future in which they can act independently on the global stage. In fact, they must come to the sobering realization that they are not truly “allies” of the United States. Washington, as recent statements have suggested, views Europe not as a partner, but as a potential adversary in the future. For instance, when former President Donald Trump ordered Boeing to develop the F-47 fighter jet, he remarked that a modified version would be sold to U.S. allies, noting, “Our allies may no longer be our allies in the future.” This statement was not only telling but also deeply insulting to Europe, suggesting that the longstanding transatlantic relationship is being redefined.
In light of this, European nations must seriously consider the possibility that Washington could become an adversary in the future. Under these circumstances, it would be strategically unwise to continue relying on a nation for defence that may no longer share their interests or regard them as allies. For Europe to secure its future, it must chart its course and build a defence infrastructure independent of American influence.
Build European for Multipolarity
Europe is more than capable of building and defending itself. Led by Germany, the EU collectively outproduces the United States in several key industries, including steel, ships, and civil aircraft. On average, EU member states also pay less to service their debts than the U.S., providing Europe with both industrial strength and financial resources necessary to embark on a path of domestic rearmament. Recent reports in the U.S. media reveal that Europe not only produces more vehicles than the U.S. and 50% more steel, but in 2024, Airbus also delivered twice as many aircraft as the financially troubled Boeing. Additionally, Europe maintains critical upstream industries essential for defence production, such as steel and chemicals, even as it grapples with the effects of high-energy costs.
Harnessing these resources is crucial for Europe’s future. The stakes are not only high for the EU itself, but also for the broader global order. In a multipolar world, the international system will undergo significant shifts, reducing the likelihood of conflicts fuelled by Washington’s unilateral decisions. Take the Ukraine conflict, for instance - it was largely precipitated by the Biden administration’s aggressive push to expand NATO. This strategy was designed to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russia. However, the unintended consequence has been a growing European effort to reduce its own dependence on the U.S. itself. In this context, unilateralism has effectively disrupted the transatlantic alliance.
As Europe begins this journey towards greater autonomy, it is clear that the path forward will be pivotal for its own security - and for the stability of the global order.
