Diya Upreti, Jadetimes Staff
Diya Upreti is a Jadetimes news reporter covering Isreal-Gaza war News
Beyond its immediate impact on the lands it touches, the conflict between Israel and Gaza is going to have deep-ranging influences on the wider Middle Eastern region. Escalating, it has already entailed political tension, economic instability, and humanitarian issues in the border countries. Much like the Israel-Gaza war, the intricacies of Middle Eastern geopolitics are complex and tend to reinforce the fissures now in place while calling into question all regional alliances and stability.
Political Consequences in the Middle East
Politically, the struggle between Israel and Gaza has ignited tensions across the political parties and states in the Middle East. Those who support Palestinian cause, for example, Iran, Lebanon, and Syria, are using the crisis to castigate Israel and strengthen the stance of opposing Israeli's policies. Iran has indeed supported Hamas, the rulers of Gaza, by doling out funds and supplies to Hamas. In an attempt to fortify that support, the conflict confirms Iran's place as one of the region's growing powers willing to challenge both Israeli and Western interests at their own game and accelerate its power play in that region. In this contest, Iran gains the strategic space to better consolidate relationships with anti-Israel groups or nations, and thus its standing within the anti-Israel consensus is strengthened.
Egypt, with its peace treaty against Israel, and Jordan have to face tough diplomatic measures. Such governments are further under stress from their people, whom the latter sympathize with Palestinian grievances. For instance, Jordan has a population section which identifies as Palestinians in good numbers. This automatically puts the conflict in place as a domestically added contentious issue, thus making it even more complicated for a government to find an officially suitable stance with that which public opinion is advocating. Egyptian leaders have acted as mediators, trying to negotiate ceasefires and de-escalate violence, given their shared border with Gaza and historical role in peace negotiations.
The conflict has also tested the new normalization agreements, known as the Abraham Accords, between Israel and some Arab states, like the UAE and Bahrain. Although these accords were a step towards cooperation and economic partnerships, the flare-up in Gaza has put pressure on these new relationships. Public opinion in these countries is mostly pro-Palestinian, so governments are walking a tightrope in their relationship with Israel. As such, these future normalization deals are under pressure from this Israel-Gaza conflict, which can easily stall or even be sent backward if the situation is not diffused.
The economic impact to the region
Neighboring countries are also exposed to the economic impact of the Israel-Gaza conflict. Bordering states such as Egypt and Jordan endure the financial burden of supporting displaced Palestinians or providing other relief, which stretches already thinly spread resources. Egypt often asks to open the Rafah crossing for medical supplies and aids, which increase the operation cost and creates more pressures on the Egyptian government for the logistics.
It further disrupts the trade routes and commerce of the region. The conflict in Israel and Gaza keeps its military action in flux; the ports and all other transport infrastructure are either on delay or damaged, further hampering the free movement of goods. The after effects of this situation spread a wave of impact on the economic setup of the region due to the fact that a country like Jordan relies solely upon the Israeli ports for import as well as export activities. In addition, instability has raised security costs for the countries bordering Israel. They have to strengthen borders and increase defense spending in a bid to curb spillovers from the conflict.
Instability in the broader Middle East also dents investor confidence. Foreign investments in the region are affected. Violence deters international business and tourism, which are major sources of revenue for countries such as Egypt and Jordan. For instance, even a relatively popular destination within Egypt, the Sinai Peninsula, experiences travel advisory issues when conflict escalates. This further dents the revenue generated from tourism activities. Neighboring countries feel the impact of tourism coming to a standstill. The region is still recovering from COVID-19.
Short-term implications in the region
The Israel-Gaza war may bring about a shifting of the regional dynamics in the long run. In the case of instability, divisions are likely to pick up pace, with the alignment of some countries closely with Israel while others side up with the Palestinian groups. It further fuels sectarian divide, where Shia-majority Iran is on the support side of Hamas and Hezbollah, whereas Sunni-majority countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt tread carefully from their stand.
Finally, it has only served to underscore the need for a long-term solution of the Israeli-Palestinian problem since its impact crosses international borders and affects the building of political relationships as well as economic stability. To the Middle East region, solving the Israel-Gaza conflict is essential because it would lead to lasting peace and security in that region since its impact affects not only the direct actors but also the future destiny of the neighboring countries and their subjects.
