Thiloththama Jayasinghe, Jadetimes Staff
T. Jayasinghe is a Jadetimes news reporter covering International News
The newly emerging variant of COVID-19, XEC, is putting itself in the limelight as it rapidly spreads across several countries and could soon become the dominant strain across the globe. It was first detected in Germany in August 2024, XEC being a recombinant variant. It forms through a natural viral process called recombination when one individual gets infected with two different strains of COVID-19 at the same time.
In the case of XEC, it is actually a recombinant of two very closely related variants, namely KS.1.1 and KP.3.3. Both these parent variants descended from JN.1, the earlier dominant strain in the beginning of 2024. XEC has a characteristic growth advantage over other circulating variants. This actually means that in the following months, XEC would be at a better chance to outcompete other variants in circulation and rise in dominance. However, XEC wasn't that different from its predecessors because it shared the big chunk of genetic material with them.
Since its first detection, it has spread to more than 600 cases in 27 countries across Europe, North America, and Asia. The greatest fraction of XEC cases stems from Germany, the country where the variant was first described. An estimated 13 percent of cases there are due to XEC. XEC infections have also been recorded in significant numbers in the US, the UK, Canada, and Denmark; nonetheless, for the time being, it is still a minority strain. Global databases such as GISAID have documented the spread of the variant, where scientists sequence the viruses to analyze their genetic mutations and follow through on the viruses' evolution.
The specific mutations accounting for XEC's edge include the relatively uncommon T22N mutation, which was handed down from variant KS.1.1, and Q493E from KP.3.3, both of which are in the virus spike protein. Spike protein is one of the most significant proteins of the virus; it mediates attachment to human cells, thus facilitating entry and replication. Although it is not very well understood how the T22N mutation could affect the virus' replicative capabilities or its transmissibility among people, these factors might contribute to the rapid growth of XEC.
At this point, detailed data are not yet available on how severe an illness XEC might cause. Symptoms should not be any different from other COVID variants: fever, sore throat, coughing, headaches, body aches, and fatigue. The number of admissions to hospitals could increase during the colder months of the year when people are more indoors, hence increasing the transmission rate of respiratory viruses. This may not particularly be the uptick due to the XEC variant this winter.
Vaccination also continues to reduce the potential impact of XEC. For example, in the UK, an autumn booster campaign starting in October will include the use of an updated vaccine targeting the JN.1 variant. As XEC is a descendent of JN.1, the updated vaccines should provide a good level of protection against serious illness, even if XEC does continue to spread.
Recombinant variants are nothing new. Last year, for instance, another recombinant variant, XBB, was the main occupant of the COVID landscape. Other than XEC, researchers are keeping a close watch on other recombinant variants, including MV.1, which carries the same T22N mutation and was first detected in India this June. How fast MV.1 spreads is even more a testament to the unpredictability of viral evolution.
XEC is well-placed at this very moment to take over and be the circulating variant; however, it is by no means impossible that this would be outcompeted or replaced by some other variants before its full traction. This is a continuing evolution-a part of the virus's natural process. But global science remains full-square on the tracking and response to emerging variants.
