By T. Jayani, JadeTimes News
For the first time in history, a sitting president and a former president will face off in a debate before millions of viewers, scheduled unusually early even before the party conventions. It offers President Biden a critical opportunity to revive his reelection bid, which is in jeopardy as he struggles to persuade voters that he has delivered the political and economic stability promised in 2020.
The significance of this debate is heightened by the unprecedented political climate. Since the first televised debate between Sen. John F. Kennedy and Vice President Richard Nixon in 1960, there have been close elections that significantly shifted the country's direction. However, the stakes in 2024 are unparalleled due to Trump's efforts to undermine the peaceful transfer of power with baseless fraud claims in 2020 and his vow to enact a vengeful presidency if he wins.
In past elections, a victory by Sen. John Kerry in 2004 or ex Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012 would have led to considerable political changes, but the fundamental character of the republic and its global stance would have remained intact. This assurance is absent in the current election. Trump's authoritarian tendencies, demonstrated by his claims of near unlimited presidential power and plans for stringent new policies on immigration, the economy, and foreign policy, could lead to massive upheaval in a second term.
Democrats are eager for the 81 year old Biden to demonstrate vigor and sharpness amidst concerns about his age. Meanwhile, 78 year old Trump’s biggest challenge might be avoiding behavior that supports Biden's warnings about his instability.
Biden plans to attack Trump on abortion, where he has an advantage in polls, and Trump’s admiration for foreign dictators. Trump will likely depict Biden’s America as dystopian, plagued by uncontrolled immigration, rampant crime, and economic pain. Remarkably, this debate occurs less than a month after Trump was convicted in a criminal hush money case in New York. While Biden has highlighted this conviction in his campaign, Trump maintains he is the victim of a politically motivated legal system.
Both candidates face immense pressure to avoid debate blunders or quirks that could dominate post debate coverage and shape voter perceptions. Historical examples include Vice President Al Gore’s sighs in 2000 and President George H.W. Bush’s glance at his watch in 1992, both of which became symbols of losing campaigns. The risk is even greater now due to social media.
Presidential debates do not always determine the election outcome, but the tension surrounding this unusually early debate in June is intense. “The closer the election, the greater the chance that a debate could influence it,” said Aaron Kall, director of debate at the University of Michigan. Mistakes often reinforce existing negative perceptions of candidates. For Biden, this means avoiding any signs of frailty, while Trump needs to control outbursts that could validate Biden’s portrayal of him as a dangerous autocrat.
Neither Trump nor Biden has debated since their final 2020 clash. Their preparations reflect their different styles and political personas. Biden has been secluded at Camp David with advisers, engaging in mock debates and studying briefing materials to prepare for Trump's unpredictable style. Fueled by lasagna and tacos, Biden views this debate as a crucial battle for the nation's soul.
Trump, disliking mock debates, has relied on rally performances and instinct to prepare. He has held policy refresher sessions with aides and potential vice presidential picks like Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
Biden’s preparation team, led by former White House chief of staff Ron Klain, emphasizes the importance of the first 30 minutes of the debate. Biden plans to front load his key points to capitalize on the highest viewership. His team has studied Trump’s recent public appearances and crafted responses to potential attacks.
A Biden adviser noted that preparations include strategies for responding to personal attacks, especially following Hunter Biden’s felony gun charges. Biden's protective nature towards his family could lead to emotional responses if Trump brings up personal issues, as he did in their 2020 debate.
At Camp David, Biden has rehearsed on a mock debate stage with aides playing Trump and the moderators. This practice aims to enhance his comfort and address age related concerns. Aides cite Biden’s energetic State of the Union address as a model of his capabilities.
Trump, meanwhile, has warmed up for the debate by accusing Biden of being on drugs and lowering expectations for himself by portraying Biden as mentally diminished. In a recent memo, Trump’s campaign indicated he will attack Biden on immigration and the economy, boasting about favorable polling averages.
Trump’s unconventional approach could remind the nation of the chaos of his presidency, appealing to his supporters while potentially aiding Biden’s effort to highlight their contrasting styles. Former Obama speechwriter Terry Szuplat emphasized that successful debates tell a coherent story about the candidate and the future. This debate offers both candidates their best chance to convey their vision for America’s future.
