Chethana Janith, Jadetimes Staff
C. Janith is a Jadetimes news reporter covering science and geopolitics.
Why are Arab states in the Middle East not doing anything practical to stop Israel’s war on Gaza? The Qatari leader recently blamed Israel for committing “genocide” in Gaza.
But beyond the rhetoric, the collective politico-economic might of these states appears to be useless. This is quite unlike 1973 when Arab States did impose an oil embargo on the US, forcing an oil related economic crisis in the West and compelling them to change their policies. Why are they unable to do this again? They still possess their key ‘weapon’ and using it on the same lines as in the 1970s could trigger a fresh economic crisis, hitting western countries supporting Israel’s right to “defend” itself. But they are not doing it. The key reasons include a) the Arab leaders’ deep interests within the West (e.g., they have a lot of their wealth stored in properties in Europe and the US, which they don’t want to jeopardize), b) they are collectively relying on the US to negotiate a deal on their behalf with Israel, and c) Arab states’ own direct and indirect, official and unofficial, formal and informal ties with Israel itself.
Empty Arab Rhetoric
Jordan’s King Abdullah II said at the United Nations General Assembly this week. “But the unprecedented scale of terror unleashed on Gaza since that day is beyond any justification”. Qatar’s Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani also spoke about “genocide” against Palestinians in Gaza. “With all that has taken place and continues to take place, it is no longer tenable to speak of Israel’s right to defend itself in this context without being complicit in justifying the crime,” he argued. Clearly, Qatar does not agree with the US position that continues to stress Israel’s inherent right to (brutal) self-defense.
But this rhetoric is clearly not working. If it was, Israel would have long ended its war on Gaza, and it would most certainly have not decided to expand its war in Lebanon. For one thing, Israel understands that the purpose of this rhetoric is not to target Israel per se, but to create a semblance of ‘resistance’ against Israel for the consumption of the domestic audiences of these states. This is to manage public anger and redirect it away from Arab leaders towards Israel. The purpose is to win the public relations war.
Reliance on Washington
The irony of the situation is that the empty rhetoric not only carries no actual political weight, but it also relies for its minimal validation on Washington, the primary supporter of Israel! Why would Arab leaders decided to rely on Washington to stop Israel when they know that this strategy is a non-starter? There are several reasons for this. First, Arab states continue to see Washington as a key, even if not the only, source of security. This is one of the main reasons that Saudi Arabia remains deeply interested in signing a fresh security pact with Washington in lieu of recognizing Israel. Second, the reliance on Washington may have some realistic grounds, insofar as only Washington has the leverage to force Israel to stop. Agreed. But expecting from Washington to use this leverage because Arab states want so is close to being naïve. Furthermore, expecting from Washington to use this leverage against its key ally – which also exercises a lot of political influence in Washington’s policy making circles, and, therefore, has its own leverage on the US – in the Middle East is unrealistic as well. Worse still, Washington is the key to establishing ties with Israel.
Arab Wealth vs. Palestine
As a recent report said, Arab leaders, i.e., the Royal families, from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE owned more than one billion GBP of property in the UK only. Other reports indicate Arab investors, with 80 percent of the expected $180bn Arab investment, flowing into the UK and Europe over the next 10 years, buying hotels and expanding their commercial footprint. Western countries are major avenues where Arab states’ sovereign wealth funds, collectively valued at US$3.7 trillion, are majorly invested. What are these leaders and investors thinking? Their immediate reference is the (illegal) treatment of Russian wealth in the US and Europe.
Were leaders to really pull the oil leverage and impose an embargo on oil exports to Europe and the US, it could blow back as well. Their concerns include the possibility of their moveable and immovable assets being frozen via sanctions of similar nature as those imposed on Russia recently. Protecting these assets is necessary also because they are a key source of Arab states’ policy to reduce their dependence on hydrocarbons and diversify their economies. Were their assets to face a hit, it could set back their economies massively. Therefore, they have adopted an extremely cautious approach and are completely unwilling to use oil as an instrument of foreign policy any longer.
This is regardless of the fact that this position comes with a huge cost in terms of thousands of deaths and the continuous destruction of life and property of the people of Palestine (and now Lebanon).
Even though Arab states tried to pull China in at the start of Israel’s war on Gaza, that, too, has turned out to part of the game of rhetoric, given especially that China exercises no leverage on Israel and has no intervention policy. Besides moral and diplomatic support, Beijing is unlikely to offer anything else. But this is something that Israel cares least about, although it is still something that helps Arab states build an image of themselves as hyperactively engaged in peace efforts. They might even succeed at some point in time, but they are sure they are not and wouldn’t be paying any costs for this delay.
