Deepshikha maan, Jadetimes Staff
D. Maan is a Jadetimes news reporter covering Israel Gaza war
Israeli Tactical Success
Israel has scored a notable tactical triumph in its recent operation, reminiscent of a high stakes thriller. Undoubtedly, this triumph inflicts a significant setback on Hezbollah, resulting in widespread humiliation and increased uncertainty for the organization. Probably, it will have a detrimental impact on their morale.
Key Strategic Risks Faced by Israel
Despite the achievements, Israel has significant strategic difficulties. Although the operation causes Hiszbollah humiliation, it does not dissuade them from engaging in future activities. Furthermore, this does not effectively advance Israel's overarching objective of halting Hezbollah's attacks and facilitating the return of more than 60,000 Israelis residing along the northern border, who have been displaced for nearly a year.
An Analysis of the Weapon and Its Constraints
Israel utilized a daring and exceptionally efficient weapon in this military campaign. Nevertheless, according to investigations by Al Monitor, a highly respected Middle Eastern magazine, Israel was unable to utilize it according to its initial intentions. The original approach was to follow the assault with a sequence of formidable attacks while Hezbollah was still recuperating. The initial action, referred to as the "pager attack," was launched with the aim of initiating a more extensive escalation, potentially resulting in an invasion of southern Lebanon.
Obligated to Take Early Action
Yet, the same reports indicate that Hezbollah had become wary, compelling Israel to carry out the attack ahead of schedule. While Israel successfully demonstrated its ability to penetrate Hezbollah's communications and inflict a defeating blow, the operation did not contribute to the advancement of peace in the region. Indeed, it propelled it towards a full scale conflict.
Larger Regional Ramifications
Presently, the outcome of de-escalation in the Middle East mostly depends on the circumstances in Gaza. The ongoing fighting in that region, together with the unresolved tensions with Lebanon, attacks in the Red Sea by the Houthis, and other regional problems, continues to require attention. The United States ambassador to Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, has been exerting considerable effort for several months to seek a diplomatic resolution, indirectly involving the Lebanese government, Hezbollah, and Israel. Nevertheless, there are rumors indicating that Israel failed to notify the United States about its intentions for this assault until the final moments, therefore potentially complicating diplomatic endeavors.
Challenges in the Gaza Strip and Internal Pressures
Two primary impediments are still hindering the advancement towards a ceasefire in Gaza. Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas, proposes that Israel should withdraw entirely from Gaza and free Palestinian captives in return for the remaining Israeli hostages. Secondly, there is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has firmly asserted that Israel will attain a comprehensive triumph over Hamas.
Netanyahu is under internal pressure from families of captives who hope to negotiate an agreement to repatriate their loved ones. Nevertheless, his far right coalition partners have issued a warning of potential government collapse if he makes concessions on this matter.
Analysis of Israeli Self-Defense and Civilian Casualties
Israel and its allies justify the latest measures implemented against Hezbollah as valid acts of self defense. Nevertheless, concerns have been expressed over the number of civilian casualties. Closed circuit television (CCTV) video captured a pager firing in a bustling marketplace, and reports from Lebanon indicate that a small girl perished when her father's pager exploded. While Hezbollah has been deeply affected by the attack, it is anticipated to swiftly rebound and explore other means of communication, particularly in a tiny nation such as Lebanon where messages may be personally delivered.
The Region on the Breaking Point
The current aftermath of the attack is causing significant distress for both Hezbollah and its partner, Iran, whose envoy to Beirut sustained injuries. Nevertheless, the whole region is currently on the brink of a large-scale conflict. Unchecked, these escalations have the potential to devolve into catastrophe.
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