By Chethana Janith, Jadetimes News
AFTER MORE THAN A DECADE of research and development, China is reportedly building a fleet of floating nuclear reactors in the South China Sea. While these could support commercial development and oil exploration, China has also boasted of the floating reactors’ military capabilities, which it claims will give them an edge over any American forces in the area.
In 2016, China’s National Nuclear Safety Administration claimed that an artificial island with a floating nuclear platform would be “equivalent to a nuclear powered aircraft carrier” equipped with combat aircraft and missile systems. “Their military superiority will be far greater than that of the United States’ long distance aircraft carrier fleet,” the state sponsored organization continued.
That very well may be hyperbole, but defense experts agree China’s nuclear upgrade is significant.
“Having an endless source of power on a small artificial island provides the Chinese military a significant advantage,” says Robert Bunker, Ph.D., of the strategic consultancy C/O Futures. The floating reactors present a new, clear threat to the U.S. and other nations in multiple ways. Not only does a floating reactor increase the potential for prolonged military operations, it also complicates any possible U.S. response.
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA is disputed territory, with competing claims from China, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Indonesia. The People’s Republic of China does not just want a small piece of the pie, in 2009 it claimed 90 percent of the South China Sea, and is still asserting that claim today. International discussions have failed to resolve the conflict, and in recent years China has been flexing its military muscles to support its claims.
China started its island buildup in 2014 with a fleet of giant dredgers scooping up sand from the sea bed to expand existing islands and create new, artificial ones. China initially claimed the new land would only be for civilian use, then went back on those promises and turned the land into military bases with radars and missiles. By 2022, some of the islands had aircraft runways, hangars, fuel storage, and other infrastructure for military aircraft operations.
China is using the islands to support increasingly bold action against other nations, everything short of an actual shooting war. In particular, Chinese aircraft fly dangerously close to military flights by U.S., Australian, and other powers. Gregory Poling, South China Sea expert at the Washington, D.C., based Center for Strategic and International Studies, says the volume of incidents shows this is a deliberate strategy.
“The Pentagon was reporting a record number of unsafe aircraft intercepts by China, one every two and a half days, until the Biden Xi meeting [in November 2023]. If those restart, an ‘accidental’ collision is increasingly likely,” says Poling.
At sea, China is harassing Filipino fishing vessels with water cannons, lasers, and dangerous maneuvers that sometimes end in collisions. It’s only a matter of time, says Poling, before one of these incidents results in a death, which will then prompt further escalation. And that may be exactly the sort of excuse for action that China seeks.
At the same time, China is also introducing a new atomic powered factor into the conflict.
A FLOATING NUCLEAR REACTOR provides abundant power to remote spots, like distant islands, which cannot be connected to the grid.
“There is a long history of marine nuclear reactors, mostly submarines, but also aircraft carriers and other ships,” says Michael Bluck, Ph.D., head of the Nuclear Research Group at Imperial College London. “Though only the Russians have put one on a barge before.”
Until now.
China is building two prototypes: the 60 megawatt ACPR50S and the 125 megawatt ACP100S. Each reactor sits on its own 400 foot long barge and can be towed wherever needed. These are pressurized water reactors with a passive cooling system, a modern design which, unlike earlier reactors, will not suffer a catastrophic meltdown if the cooling fails.
Unlike earlier designs, as the temperature rises, the output falls in a pressurized water reactor; this prevents runaway overheating. Passive cooling, which works even if power is lost, removes heat from the reactor core when the system goes down and makes serious accidents even less likely. Other nations are looking at this technology for miniature nuclear reactors, and may one day put them on floating platforms, too.
As Bluck notes, Russia already has the Akademik Lomonsov, a nuclear reactor on a barge. It’s been operating in the Arctic Sea since 2019, providing power for the northern port city of Pevek, strengthening Russia’s claim on Arctic territory. While it is not armed itself, it provides a source of power.
The new Chinese plants were initially meant to support oil exploration in a disputed area of the South China Sea. China announced in 2016 that the reactor would power a string of 20 proposed island military bases. These bases are meant to spearhead China’s push to establish dominance in the region, and fortifying the bases with nuclear power is an escalation of those tactics.
The islands will not be just “unsinkable aircraft carriers” - a term Gen. Douglas MacArthur used to describe Pacific islands in WWII - but unsinkable nuclear aircraft carriers. And that makes them even more of a challenge.
GIVEN THAT CHINA already has military island bases, why is a nuclear reactor better than solar, wind turbines, or diesel generators?
“A nuclear power plant is relatively compact and self contained, so the benefits are its small footprint and not needing constant refueling,” Bunker says.
Compare this to a nuclear powered aircraft carrier. Conventional carriers require frequent refueling, but a nuclear carrier can remain at sea for years. Similarly, adding nuclear power makes the remote bases independent and allows them to operate for protracted periods.
As well as electricity, the floating nuclear reactor produces waste heat which can drive a desalination plant, producing an endless supply of fresh water. Currently, the island bases are dependent on water shipped to them, and use diesel fuel for generators.
China has also experimented with renewables, building a 500 kilowatt solar plant on Woody Island in the South China Sea, and giant wave power units that use technology allegedly stolen from the U.K.,but these can only meet a fraction of an island’s total power needs. Nuclear provides enough power to keep a base running, with plenty to spare for energy hungry systems.
A floating reactor could also power future weapons such as high energy lasers or microwaves, which could become important in the next decade.
The islands will not be just “unsinkable aircraft carriers”, a term Gen. Douglas MacArthur used to describe Pacific islands in WWII - but unsinkable nuclear aircraft carriers. And that makes them even more of a challenge.
THE NUCLEAR PLANT is also a shield. In the past, the U.S. has carried out strikes on air bases used for hostile actions, but that’s not so easy if there’s the risk of radioactive contamination.
“Any attack on a nuclear power plant de facto means that the attacker has ‘gone nuclear’ from a media narrative perspective, even if the worst case outcome is a radiological dispersal event or no release at all,” says Bunker. “This gives the defender a great advantage, especially, when key military assets such as anti-air and anti-ship missile batteries hug the power plant, because the attacker will think twice about targeting those assets.”
We have already seen a similar situation in Ukraine; Russia has used captured nuclear reactors to shelter its forces, knowing that the Ukrainians wouldn’t likely risk a radioactive spill.
“A nuclear reactor on the base will affect your war planning,” Poling says.
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS are always a cause for concern, and putting one on a barge in a stretch of ocean notorious for devastating cyclones adds to the risk. Other ships might also run into it, an additional hazard that Chinese researchers are studying.
The Chinese themselves have raised questions about the project’s safety, and it was put on pause last year while these concerns were addressed. However, the technology is mature and has a good safety record. “Pressurized water reactors are a very well understood technology,” Bluck says. “There have been no recorded accidents with one.” He notes that the floating reactors are no more risky that the units powering ships and submarines.
POLING NOTES THAT CHINA may reap other benefits from the new floating reactors. The military application means that the developers can get government funding, but once the reactors are in production, they’ll benefit China in other ways.
“Disaster relief is an obvious use case,” Poling says. “Floating reactors could provide temporary power for a city. They could be used for oil exploitation, and there is the export market.”
He cites the example of how China’s island building activity from 2013 to 2016 made the world aware of China’s dredger fleet. This gave the nation a massive publicity boost, enabling it to become a global player. China’s share of the global dredging market has since tripled from 7 percent to 21 percent. “Now Chinese dredgers are working all over the world,” Poling says.
Like the dredgers, the floating nuclear power plants may piggyback on China’s military ambitions to become an economic success story, and a unique capability the People’s Republic of China can offer client states.
Analysts are understandably concerned about the military aspect of the new power plants, but the volatile situation could reach a boiling point before they’re even erected.
“This is something that, if it happens at all, is going to happen some years ahead,” Poling says. “A lot can happen between now and then.”
Already, the planned reactors are raising the political temperature, increasing the chance of a conflict, which is perhaps also part of China’s plan.
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