Chethana Janith, Jadetimes Staff
C. Janith is a Jadetimes news reporter covering science and geopolitics.
On December 26, 2024, China unveiled two new fighter jets, widely recognized as sixth-generation or next-generation stealth fighters. This development has led many experts to speculate that China has surpassed the U.S. in air power dominance. Meanwhile, the U.S. has remained unusually silent, raising questions about whether it is losing ground in the race for aerial supremacy.
This shift in capability didn’t happen overnight; rather, it is the result of years of systemic challenges, delayed innovation, and changing priorities. Could this mark the defining moment signaling the end of American air superiority? And is it already too late for the U.S. to regain its dominant position in the skies?
Analysis: Why Has the U.S. Fallen Behind?
China’s ascent in aerospace innovation is a story of strategic focus, efficiency, and rapid adaptation. Its ability to develop advanced fighter jets on accelerated timelines stands in stark contrast to the lengthy and costly processes seen in the U.S. For example, China’s J-20, a fifth-generation fighter, went from its first demonstrator flight to operational deployment in just six years. In comparison, the U.S. F-22 and F-35 programs took nearly 15 to 16 years to reach similar milestones.
China has also made significant investments in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons, directed energy systems, and advanced stealth capabilities. These investments have facilitated the rapid prototyping and demonstration of two sixth-generation technology demonstrators.
In contrast, the U.S. faces growing uncertainty with its Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program. Some experts predict that the NGAD may not achieve operational capability until the late 2030s, further widening the gap between the two nations in the race for air dominance.
Andrew Hunter, the outgoing USAF acquisition executive, has warned that China could deploy its sixth-generation fighters before the U.S. reaches initial operational capability for its Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program.
The core of America’s challenges lies in its weakened industrial base and bureaucratic inefficiencies. During the Cold War, a robust aerospace industry thrived with contributions from companies like General Dynamics, North American Rockwell, and McDonnell Douglas. Today, only Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman remain active in fighter jet design. This lack of competition has led to complacency and slowed innovation.
Additionally, cost overruns and delays - exemplified by the F-35 program - highlight systemic inefficiencies that China has managed to avoid by developing more cost-effective platforms.
Key Differences Between U.S. and Chinese Sixth-Gen Fighters
China’s sixth-generation fighter jets emphasize range, adaptability, and multi-role capabilities. The larger of the two unveiled designs, potentially named the J-36, features a tailless diamond-wing configuration powered by three engines. This design is optimized for extended range and loitering capabilities, with a potential combat radius of 1,500 to 2,000 miles - a critical feature given China’s limited tanker resources. The aircraft is also likely designed to operate at altitudes above 50,000 feet, enhancing its sensor range, weapon reach, and fuel efficiency.
The Chinese jets also feature significant weapons capacity. The J-36’s large main weapon bays can carry heavy missiles like the PL-17, while smaller outboard bays provide space for defensive systems. These fighters are envisioned as multi-role platforms capable of performing long-range counter-air missions, ground strikes, suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD), and acting as command hubs for drone swarms. This versatility highlights China’s strategic focus on addressing security challenges in the Western Pacific.
In contrast, the U.S. has yet to reveal significant progress on its NGAD program. While details remain classified, it is clear that the program faces challenges in both design and production. China’s ability to field its fighters at a fraction of the cost of American counterparts further shifts the balance, enabling faster development and deployment cycles.
A New Reality in Aerial Warfare
China’s unveiling of its sixth-generation fighters signifies a seismic shift in global air power dynamics. For decades, the U.S. relied on air superiority as the cornerstone of its military doctrine.
However, without a credible sixth-generation fighter in sight, this doctrine is at risk of becoming obsolete. The U.S. must confront not only technological and industrial challenges but also the stark reality that its adversaries are outpacing it in innovation and execution.
The question now is not whether the U.S. can match China’s advancements, but whether it can do so in time to maintain its strategic dominance. With the pace of modern warfare accelerating, the stakes have never been higher.
If America fails to overcome its industrial, economic, and strategic hurdles, it may lose its air superiority for the first time since World War II. Time will tell, but for now, China’s ascension in the skies seems inevitable.
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