By G. Mudalige, Jadetimes Staff
G. Mudalige is a Jadetimes news reporter covering Technology & Innovation
As US President Joe Biden nears the end of his term, Europe finds itself at a critical juncture, particularly concerning the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. During his brief state visit to Germany last week, Biden emphasized the importance of sustained military and diplomatic support for Ukraine, calling for continued efforts until Kyiv secures a "just and durable peace." However, with the US presidential election looming, uncertainty clouds the future of US-European cooperation, especially regarding defense and Ukraine.
Biden’s foreign policy has been characterized by his commitment to strengthening European defense, marking a significant departure from the policies of his predecessor, Donald Trump, who often expressed disdain for NATO. During Biden's administration, Europe has relied heavily on US military aid to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia, with Germany serving as the second-largest donor.
In recognition of his efforts, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier awarded Biden the country’s highest honor, the special class of the Grand Cross. Despite these symbolic gestures, Biden warned that much more needs to be done to ensure Ukraine's victory, reinforcing that the transatlantic alliance must stay united.
However, as the US election approaches, Biden’s ambitions are under threat. The possibility of a Republican victory, particularly if Trump wins, casts doubt on future US support for Ukraine. Trump has historically taken a softer stance toward Russia and has not committed to backing Ukraine’s victory. Even if Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, succeeds Biden, analysts suggest that Congress may shift focus to other foreign policy issues, such as China and Taiwan.
The uncertainty surrounding the future of US support is compounded by Europe’s own struggles to strengthen its defense capabilities. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised a "Zeitenwende" (turning point) in German defense policy. He pledged significant investments in the German military to enhance the country's contribution to NATO. However, this revamp has been delayed by bureaucratic hurdles, with Germany yet to agree on a future defense budget.
German intelligence chiefs recently warned that Russia’s ongoing military buildup could enable it to target NATO by the end of the decade. Despite these warnings, Germany's defense reforms remain stagnant, raising concerns about Europe's ability to protect itself if US support dwindles.
Additionally, the political landscape in Europe is fragile. Scholz faces growing pressure from both the far right and far left, who are sympathetic to Russia’s narrative. France’s President Emmanuel Macron is grappling with domestic challenges, and the UK’s new Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, is still settling into his role on the world stage. Together, these factors have contributed to what some call "Ukraine fatigue" among European allies.
Biden's farewell trip to Berlin highlighted Europe's reliance on US leadership. In a joint statement with Scholz, Starmer, and Macron, the leaders reiterated their commitment to supporting Ukraine. However, the lack of specific promises in terms of military aid has left Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wanting. He has called for concrete assistance, such as an official invitation to join NATO and greater freedom to use long-range missiles supplied by the UK and France.
As Kyiv remains locked in a difficult struggle against Russia, time is of the essence. The Biden administration's waning days could mark a turning point in the conflict. With Europe's defense initiatives bogged down and political shifts in both the US and Europe on the horizon, Ukraine and the rest of Europe find themselves in a precarious position. The clock is ticking, and the future of transatlantic support for Ukraine hangs in the balance.
