By C. Perera, JadeTimes News
Winter has officially begun in Australia, but temperatures aren't expected to drop significantly anytime soon. The Bureau of Meteorology has released its long range forecast, predicting an unusually warm winter nationwide.
According to the Bom, there is an over 80 percent chance that Australia will experience one of its warmest winters in recent memory, with both maximum and minimum temperatures likely to exceed the averages. The warmest 20 percent of temperatures recorded between 1981 and 2018 are considered "unusually" high by the BoM.
In cities like Sydney and Melbourne, where winter maximums typically range from 15 , 19 degrees Celsius and minimums from 5.5,9 degrees Celsius, these figures are expected to be surpassed this year.
While temperatures will be warmer, rainfall will be more variable. Some eastern regions might see below average precipitation, while parts of Western Australia and central southern mainland areas could receive above average rainfall. However, for most of Australia, rainfall is expected to remain within typical winter ranges. A potential La Niña could increase rainfall, but this remains uncertain with only a 50 percent chance of occurrence.
Snowfall predictions remain uncertain, as the BoM does not include snowfall in its long range forecasts due to its unpredictability. Various climate drivers like the Indian Ocean Dipole , and the Southern Annular Mode can influence snowfall, with current conditions indicating no strong trends towards heavy snow. The recently returned to neutral, and the SAM is also neutral but may turn positive.
In summary, Australians should prepare for a warmer winter with typical rainfall patterns, while snowfall predictions remain unclear due to variable climate influences.