By V.E.K.Madhushani, Jadetimes News
Attal Warns of Potential Consequences as National Rally Leads in Polls
France's rapid election campaign has concluded, and despite final appeals to reject the far right, voters appear poised to deliver a historic victory to the National Rally party in the parliamentary elections.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has warned that such a victory would unleash “impulses of hate and aggression.” However, the party of Marine Le Pen and 28 year old Jordan Bardella, who could become the next prime minister, has solidified its lead in opinion polls.
National Rally has withstood a series of racism accusations involving both party members and supporters. The crucial question now is whether the party can secure an absolute majority in the two rounds of voting over the next two Sundays. They stand a significant chance after the European elections on June 9, which turned much of France's electoral map dark blue. This was the moment President Emmanuel Macron surprised the French public by calling a general election in just three weeks.
National Rally (RN) is anticipating a big night on Sunday, with one poll showing support at 36.5%. The party's candidates hope to win dozens of seats in the National Assembly outright, with more than 50% of the vote. However, most seats will be decided in run off votes on July 7, between two, three, or even four contenders.
Opinion polls do not tell the whole story. A hastily arranged left wing alliance, the New Popular Front, is also eyeing victory, trailing RN by only a few points with 29%. The Ensemble alliance, led by Gabriel Attal, is in third place with 20.5%, according to the Ifop poll. Attal argues that both other main blocs are extreme.
No area of mainland France supported National Rally more than L’Aisne, a rural northern department with just over 50% support. Since 2022, L’Aisne has had three RN MPs, and in the historic town of Villers Cotterêts, they have had a National Rally mayor, Franck Briffaut, for a decade.
A party veteran of over 40 years, going back to its National Front days under Jean Marie Le Pen, Briffaut feels the path to power has been inevitable, similar to Giorgia Meloni's victory in Italy. However, he insists on an absolute majority in the National Assembly, requiring at least 289 of the 577 parliamentary seats.
Briffaut believes that if RN wins an absolute majority, President Macron must leave office. Macron has stated he will remain in office until his term ends in 2027, and he is responsible for appointing the next prime minister after the second round of elections on July 7.
Jordan Bardella, whose campaign posters label him as "prime minister," insists on an absolute majority. This raises the question of who Macron will choose if RN falls short. Constitutional expert Prof Dominique Rousseau suggests that if there’s no absolute majority, Macron has room to maneuver. He could look for a consensus figure to pull together the remaining center right and center left factions.
For now, Bardella is preparing for a possible government of national unity. During a recent TV debate, he promised a government of all talents, including unknown “sincere patriots” committed to France’s sovereignty. He mentioned former conservative leader Eric Ciotti, who alienated many colleagues by allying with RN.
National Rally chief Marine Le Pen, aiming for the presidency in 2027, has raised tensions by questioning the president’s role as commander in chief of the armed forces as merely “honorary.” The election's intensity has prompted Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin to warn of potential chaos from the “ultra left and ultra right” after both election rounds. He has urged local prefects to exercise vigilance.
In the northern town of Soissons, run by an RN MP for the past two years, a Greens campaigner handed out leaflets, criticizing RN for doing nothing for the town since taking office. Despite Le Pen’s efforts to rebrand RN and shed its image of racism and antisemitism, locals still refer to the party as the National Front.
One resident, Jonathan, believes the RN is no different from its predecessor but isn’t overly worried, citing constitutional safeguards. However, a black mother living nearby expressed concern about the high RN vote and their rhetoric. RN’s platform includes “National priority,” restricting social welfare to French citizens, tax cuts on energy, and income tax exemptions for under 30s. The party also aims to restrict strategic jobs to dual nationals, who make up an estimated 5% of the population.
An outgoing MP criticized the appointment of Moroccan born former Education Minister Najat Vallaud Belkacem as a “mistake.” Although Le Pen rebuked him, it is clear that the issue of 3.3 million French citizens with dual nationality is not going away. Mayor Franck Briffaut compared dual citizenship to bigamy, stating that one cannot love two countries, just as one cannot be married to two women.
As France braces for the results, the political landscape remains fraught with uncertainty and division.