Vithanage Erandi Kawshalya Madhushani Jade Times Staff
V.E.K. Madhushani is a Jadetimes news reporter covering Europe.
A Historic Challenge to SPD Dominance in Eastern Germany
The far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is on the verge of a potentially historic victory in Brandenburg, a region long considered a stronghold of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD). Since German reunification in 1990, Brandenburg, located near Berlin, has been consistently governed by the SPD. However, as two million voters prepare to cast their ballots in a fiercely contested regional election, the AfD stands a real chance of upsetting the status quo.
A Potential Blow to Scholz’s Leadership
While an outright victory for the AfD remains uncertain, any success for the far right party in Brandenburg would be a symbolic blow to Chancellor Scholz, whose residence is in the state's capital, Potsdam. Such a result would raise questions about his leadership abilities as the SPD gears up for next year’s federal elections. Scholz's approval ratings have been slipping, and a defeat in this key state could complicate his hopes for a second term.
Far Right Gains Momentum
The AfD has been riding a wave of electoral successes recently, marking its first win in a state election in Thuringia on 1 September and narrowly missing out on victory in Saxony. While classified as an extremist group in some regions, the AfD’s growing popularity highlights the deepening concerns over economic instability, immigration, and the ongoing war in Ukraine issues that resonate particularly strongly in eastern Germany, including Brandenburg.
Brandenburg: The SPD’s Traditional Bastion Under Threat
Brandenburg has long been seen as the SPD’s traditional heartland, consistently winning elections in the sparsely populated state since reunification. Yet, despite the SPD's deep roots, the AfD has been polling slightly ahead, bolstered by increasing support among younger voters. The party’s candidate for state premier, Hans Christoph Berndt, cast his vote with confidence, emphasizing the growth in AfD support since the last state election in 2019.
A Divided Response to AfD’s Rise
Despite the AfD's rise in the polls, it is unlikely to enter regional government, as all other major political parties have ruled out any cooperation with the far right group. Chancellor Scholz has been urging opposition parties to maintain a "firewall" against the AfD to prevent it from gaining governmental power. He recently described the far right's successes in Thuringia and Saxony as "bitter" and "worrying," signaling his concerns about the AfD's influence.
Uncertain Outcome with Many Voters Undecided
Although the AfD has been leading in polls, a significant portion of the electorate more than 25% remains undecided, leaving the outcome uncertain. As polls close at 18:00 local time, the first exit polls and projections will reveal whether the AfD can secure a symbolic victory in this historically left-leaning state. A win for the far right would not only embarrass Scholz but also signify a deeper political shift in Germany’s eastern regions.
