By V. E. K. Madhushani, Jadetimes News
Nation Faces a Pivotal Moment as Political Stakes Rise
France is voting in one of its most significant elections in years, with the far right aiming for a historic victory, although political stalemate remains the more likely result.
This is the first time the anti immigration National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella has had a realistic chance of running the government and taking outright control of the National Assembly. Following the RN’s first round victory last Sunday, over 200 rival candidates withdrew to give others a better chance of defeating the far right.
Voting ends at 20:00 (18:00 GMT), and by midday, turnout was 26.63%, marginally higher than in the first round and the highest figure in a parliamentary vote since 1981. Regardless of the result, it is difficult to see President Emmanuel Macron emerging well from this situation.
Four weeks ago, Macron said it was the responsible solution to call a snap vote in response to the RN’s victory in European elections, minutes after the party’s 28 year old leader Jordan Bardella challenged him to do so. It is not yet clear if there will be another presidential address after the exit polls are released when voting ends on Sunday evening.
The two round election came as a shock to a country gearing up for the start of the Paris Olympics on 26 July. Security was already tight, and now 30,000 police have been deployed during this period of heightened political tension. There are fears of violence in Paris and other French cities, regardless of the vote's outcome, and a planned protest outside the National Assembly on Sunday evening has been banned.
In Dreux, a historic old town on the road to Normandy, Sunday’s vote coincided with the Olympic flame passing through. “For us, it’s a massive thing, bigger than the election,” says Pauline in the tourist office. The flame has been traveling around France for almost two months, and Dreux is holding a weekend of festivities to mark its arrival. “Macron should have waited until after the Olympics,” Dreux resident Antoine said.
Veteran commentator Nicolas Baverez believes the president has not only disrupted his term in office but also compromised the running of the Paris 2024 Olympics, which could deliver a final blow to France’s credit and image. The constituency that includes Dreux is one of the races to watch in the second round of this election.
Candidates such as Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella have already secured their seats by winning more than half the vote. However, another 500 contests are being decided in run offs, mostly involving either two or three candidates. Former conservative cabinet minister Olivier Marleix was beaten in the first round by far right candidate Olivier Dubois. Both qualified for the run off, along with a candidate from the left wing New Popular Front, which is in second place nationally. But because Nadia Faveris was narrowly beaten into third by her conservative rival, she withdrew from the race “to block National Rally.”
One voter, Morgan, was skeptical that anything would change in the town, regardless of who won. There have been 217 such withdrawals across France, including 130 Popular Front candidates and 81 from the president’s Ensemble alliance, dramatically altering the balance of this pivotal general election.
There are 577 seats in the French parliament, and projections after Sunday’s first round gave the RN a fighting chance of securing an outright majority of 289. However, final opinion polls on Friday suggested that was out of reach, with 205 to 210 seats as a potential maximum. The parties trying to block an RN victory range from the radical left, Communists, and Greens to the Macron centrists and conservatives, all claiming to defend the country from the extreme policies of the far right.
National Rally has softened many of its plans but still aims to give French citizens “national preference” over immigrants for jobs and housing. It seeks to abolish the right to automatic citizenship for children of immigrants who have spent five years aged 11 to 18 in France and wants to bar dual nationals from dozens of sensitive jobs. Opinion polls are not necessarily reliable. Each of the 500 races is a local contest, and voters do not always follow recommendations from political parties.
If the RN managed upwards of 250 seats, it might seek allies to form a minority government. President Macron's party had to make do with similar numbers until he became frustrated with his limited ability to pass reforms in parliament. Such an RN government is unlikely, believes Prof. Armin Steinbach of HEC business school in Paris. It would soon face a vote of no confidence, and under the constitution, France cannot have another general election for at least another year.
Another potential scenario is a “grand coalition” involving most of the other parties, except for the radical France Unbowed (LFI) party, which the Macron alliance and conservatives reject as extremist. This idea has gained some momentum in recent days, but Greens leader Marine Tondelier has made clear “there’ll be no Macronist prime minister,” whatever happens. There is also talk of a technocrat government, similar to those that ran Italy during the eurozone debt crisis. Instead of choosing experts from outside politics, it might include politicians with proven expertise in particular fields.
In any case, France is entering uncharted territory, says Jean Yves Dormagen of the Cluster 17 institute. President Macron himself has said he is not about to resign and will continue to serve out his final three years in office. “We will have Macron as a lame duck president who created this mess without having to do so,” Prof. Steinbach said. “And he’s losing legitimacy.”
The immediate concern for France is to have some kind of government in place during the Olympic Games. Constitutional expert Benjamin Morel believes the president could form a national unity government until the end of the Paris Games. “That would give the parties time to reach an agreement between now and the start of the school year and the next budget,” he said.
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