By D. Maan, Jadetimes News
North Korea's Weapon Test Sparks Controversy with South Korea
A weapons test this week has become the latest point of contention between North and South Korea. Pyongyang claims to have fired an advanced multiple warhead missile, while Seoul accuses them of lying. Hours after North Korean state media praised the "success" of their test and provided pictures as proof on Thursday, South Korea labeled it "deception and exaggeration" and presented their own evidence suggesting failure.
Analysts remain uncertain about the veracity of North Korea's claims. This dispute highlights the complexities of verifying North Korea's weapons development, which continues despite severe international sanctions. If true, North Korea's latest claims would signify significant progress in their missile program. Multiple warhead missiles, which are challenging to develop and difficult to defend against, are currently possessed only by the US, UK, France, Russia, and China.
North Korea is now asserting that they are closer to achieving this capability. Experts have long considered the possibility of North Korea eventually developing MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re entry Vehicle) capabilities. MIRV technology involves attaching several warheads to a single missile that separate after launch, each powered by its own rocket to hit various targets. These warheads can be released at different speeds and in multiple directions, allowing them to strike targets hundreds of kilometers apart, making these weapons particularly efficient.
Pyongyang announced on Thursday that it had "successfully conducted the separation and guidance control test of individual mobile warheads" the previous day. The weapon reportedly used the first stage engine of an intermediate range solid fuel ballistic missile and deployed three warheads plus a decoy. The missile traveled a "shortened range" of 170 to 200km (105 to 124 miles) to ensure safety and measure the flights of the warheads, according to state media. The warheads were each "guided correctly" to their targets, and the decoy effectively deployed as well.
The test was deemed of "great significance in bolstering" North Korea's missile forces and aimed at "securing the MIRV capability," which has been set as a top priority.
South Korea Disputes North Korea's Claims of Successful Weapon Test
South Korea's military swiftly debunked North Korea's claims of a successful advanced multiple warhead missile test, stating that the "flight was not normal" and the weapon had exploded mid flight. South Korea released a video of the test, showing an unstable flight that led to a mid air explosion. Military officials reported detecting a large amount of debris, far more than would result from a successful test.
Additionally, they asserted that North Korea's pictures, allegedly showing the warheads and decoy separating from the missile, were actually from an intercontinental ballistic missile test conducted in March. Analysts cited by South Korean news agency Yonhap noted that the test's range was more typical of intercontinental ballistic missile tests and suggested the missile may have lacked adequate guidance and control systems.
Some experts believe parts of the test might have succeeded, though much remains unclear. Yang Uk, a researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies, mentioned that while the flight and separation of warheads appeared to work, there was no evidence to confirm the warheads reached their targets. Japan's defense ministry reported that the missile achieved a maximum altitude of 100km, indicating it did not enter outer space but remained within Earth's atmosphere. Dr. Yang highlighted that this meant the warheads were not tested for the high heat and pressure of atmospheric re entry, leaving their capabilities uncertain.
The weapons test was also observed by South Koreans living near the border, with a civilian capturing a visible contrail in the sky, which was later shown by South Korean media.
Expert Analysis and Strategic Implications of North Korea's Recent Weapon Test
North Korean weapons expert and former US State Department official Vann Van Diepen commented that the video of the recent test "does not seem to indicate a big explosion or catastrophic failure," and the contrail appeared consistent with North Korean state media photos. However, he added that this does not rule out a more subtle failure, noting the lack of independent proof that warheads were released and successfully flew on their own.
Regardless of the test's actual success, it is evident that North Korea would still benefit. Observers note that Pyongyang would have obtained valuable technical data from the launch, bringing them closer to achieving MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re entry Vehicle) capability a goal publicly set by North Korea's government in 2021. MIRV missiles are highly valued for their "productivity," especially if North Korea faces a depleted missile arsenal after an enemy first strike.
Even if this week's test was successful, it would not suffice to complete the development of such a weapon, though Mr. Van Diepen estimates that North Korea is "at least a few years away" from reaching this goal. The timing of the test days before an expected plenary meeting where North Korean officials will review their progress in the first half of the year may not be coincidental. Experts suggest it could be aimed at showcasing military achievements and signaling continued defiance and developing capabilities to its adversaries.
Washington has made limited comments on the latest test, releasing only a short joint statement with Japan and South Korea condemning it. However, Mr. Van Diepen noted that the US government, with its superior resources for analyzing North Korea's weapons tests, could and should provide more detailed insights.