By V.E.K.Madhushani, Jadetimes News
Strategic Maneuvering and Psychological Warfare Dominate the Landscape
Rising Tensions Between Israel and Hezbollah Amid Caution to Avoid War
The recent surge in hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, despite a reduction in missile exchanges, has escalated tensions to a precarious level. This week saw a shift from physical confrontations to verbal threats, marking a critical juncture during the Muslim holiday of Eid al Adha.
On Wednesday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah issued a stern warning of a potential invasion of northern Israel if a full scale war breaks out. He also revealed that Hezbollah possesses "new weapons" ready for deployment. However, Nasrallah emphasized that Hezbollah does not seek an all out war with Israel, framing their actions as support for their ally Hamas in Gaza.
In a provocative move, Hezbollah released drone footage of Haifa, a northern Israeli city, highlighting key military and civilian sites. This act was widely interpreted as a veiled threat to dissuade Israel from escalating the conflict, as a strike on Haifa could lead to a full scale war. Nasrallah described this footage as part of Hezbollah's "psychological warfare."
In response, Israel's Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, declared that the nation is on the brink of changing the rules of engagement with Hezbollah and Lebanon. He warned that an all out war would result in the destruction of Hezbollah and severe repercussions for Lebanon. Israel's military has also stated that operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon have been "approved and validated."
Despite the heightened rhetoric, it is broadly believed that neither Israel nor Hezbollah desires a war at this time. Such a conflict would cause widespread devastation and potentially draw in external powers like Iran and the United States. However, the fine line between deterrence and the desire for war is becoming increasingly blurred.
Some Israeli officials argue that the Hamas attacks on October 7 have altered the security calculus, asserting that northern residents cannot return to their homes unless Hezbollah is defeated. Many northern residents, who have been displaced since Hezbollah began its rocket attacks in support of Hamas, share this sentiment. Over 60,000 Israelis are currently in temporary accommodation, while more than 90,000 Lebanese have been displaced due to Israeli air and artillery strikes.
A recent poll by the Jewish People Policy Institute indicates that more than 60% of Israelis support a full force attack on Hezbollah, with 36% advocating immediate action even before concluding the conflict with Hamas. This is a significant increase from a similar poll conducted three months ago.
The ongoing war in Gaza adds another layer of complexity, making the Israeli government hesitant to open a second, potentially more challenging front against Hezbollah. Nevertheless, Israel has increased its reservist cap from 300,000 to 350,000, indicating that a northern war has not been ruled out. The government is also extending the reserve duty age limit.
The escalation in cross border strikes has broadened the range of targets on both sides. The days leading up to Eid saw a spike in drone and rocket attacks from Lebanon following the killing of senior Hezbollah commander Taleb Abdallah by Israel. This incident followed a month of intensified attacks by Hezbollah, including anti tank missiles and drones.
The tit for tat nature of the conflict raises the risk of an accidental slide into war if a particularly sensitive target is hit or if casualties escalate significantly. So far, over 400 people have been killed in Lebanon, including many civilians, and at least 25 Israelis, both soldiers and civilians, have died.
The United States dispatched an envoy to the region this week to mediate, but Hezbollah remains firm in its stance of solidarity with Hamas, viewing a Gaza ceasefire as the only viable solution for peace in the north.
For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, under immense pressure to restore calm, there are strategic advantages to maintaining both conflicts. Achieving a decisive victory in Gaza is challenging without neutralizing the Hamas leadership, and the ongoing war allows Israeli forces to target more Hezbollah positions. This strategy could bolster Netanyahu's case for the eventual return of northern residents.
As tensions remain high, both Israel and Hezbollah continue to navigate a volatile situation, each playing with fire as they seek to avoid an uncontrollable blaze.