Iruni Kalupahana JadeTimes Staff
I. Kalupahana is a Jadetimes news reporter covering Israel-Gaza War
Evacuations in Northern Israel
As the war between Israel and Hezbollah intensifies, close to 60,000 people have been evacuated in northern Israel. These attacks by Hezbollah have increased tremendously after the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas that killed over 1,200 Israelis and kidnapped another 250 citizens. With the almost daily bombardments of rockets, Israel has evacuated civilians from Kiryat Shmona as well as several kibbutzim that neighbor the Lebanese border. The government has now linked the safe return of those displaced residents with the destruction of Hamas' military capabilities and the securing of hostages' release as a key war aim.
Hezbollah's Role in the Conflict
Hezbollah is a Shia Muslim organization that was formed in 1982 and has major political and military influence in Lebanon. Hezbollah had begun its attacks in support of Hamas against Israel on October 8, after the latter launched the most violent attack from Gaza the previous day. It is believed to possess an arsenal of at least 150,000 rockets, making it the most powerful non state armed force in the region. This is a powerful Hezbollah that, over the years, has grown in influence with an Iranian backstop, controlling large swaths of southern Lebanon. In the current conflict, Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, have signaled that military action could be needed to neutralize the threat from the Lebanese militant group and safely return residents to northern Israel.
Escalation and Regional Concerns
As tensions escalate, fears grow of a broader regional war. The United States which is Israel's most significant ally has threatened a catastrophic consequence in case of spillover. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and other officials have called for restraint, fearing the involvement of other Iranian aligned militias in Syria or Iraq. Especially with Hezbollah's ties directly to Iran, a wider war involving several countries in the Middle East could be ignited, this would completely destabilize the region. Yet, Hebrew military operations have continued with Israel trying to secure its borders and maintain military superiority at the same time while it addresses international pressures through diplomacy.
Challenges in Achieving War Goals
So, what does Israel want now? To break Hamas' military, to take back hostages from the October 7 attack, and to secure the north against the Hezbollah. Reaching all these goals is not at all easy. Entrenchment within Lebanon, in addition to its connection with Iran, makes direct confrontation sensitive due to the risk of regional escalation. Further complicating these dynamics are the internal political divisions in Israel, including disagreements within the cabinet over Prime Minister Netanyahu and urging an even harder line approach. Despite complications, Israeli forces have continued airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza and simultaneous preparations for possible escalation in the north.
The Risk of Regional War
Israel has confronted Hezbollah before, most notably in the 2006 Lebanon War. But it has never seen evacuations on this scale nor such relentless attacks. International observers fear the conflict could widen into a broader war involving Iran, Syria, and other patrons of Hezbollah. The stakes are grave, with widespread human suffering and strong economic disruption throughout the region threatened. While diplomatic efforts mostly by the US and European countries are ongoing to mediate a ceasefire, the continuous firing of rockets by Hezbollah and the military preparations by Israel raise possibilities of a regional war so far, keeping the balance in the region very tenuous.
Comments