By T. Jayani, JadeTimes News
On the surface, the earthquake that hit southern Japan on Thursday might not seem significant. The 7.1 magnitude quake caused minimal damage, and the tsunami warning was quickly downgraded. However, it was followed by an unprecedented warning from Japan's Meteorological Agency, which indicated an increased risk of a "major earthquake." In response, Japan's Prime Minister canceled a planned trip to Central Asia to stay in the country over the next week.
This development has caused many in Japan to fear the possibility of the "big one," a catastrophic earthquake that experts have warned about for generations. Worst case scenarios suggest that such an event could lead to over 300,000 fatalities, with a tsunami up to 30 meters (100 feet) high striking Japan's Pacific coast. Despite the gravity of the situation, residents like Masayo Oshio from Yokohama expressed confusion rather than fear. She questioned the significance of the advisory, noting that while people have long been warned of a major earthquake, its sudden reality felt surreal.
The primary concern is the Nankai Trough, a seismically active region along Japan's Pacific coast, where massive earthquakes have occurred in the past. The last major earthquake in this area occurred nearly 80 years ago, and experts estimate a 70% to 80% chance of a magnitude 8 or 9 quake striking within the next 30 years. Such an event could cause trillions of yen in damage and potentially result in hundreds of thousands of deaths.
However, predicting earthquakes remains highly uncertain. According to Robert Geller, Professor Emeritus of Seismology at the University of Tokyo, the warning issued on Thursday is not based on scientific certainty. While earthquakes often occur in clusters, it's impossible to predict whether a quake is a foreshock or an aftershock. Only around 5% of earthquakes are foreshocks, though the 2011 earthquake was preceded by a magnitude 7.2 foreshock that was largely ignored. The new warning system, implemented after the 2011 disaster, was used for the first time on Thursday. Although the Japan Meteorological Agency urged caution, it did not advise evacuations, emphasizing that while the risk of a major earthquake was elevated, it did not mean one was imminent.
The warning prompted Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to cancel his travel plans to ensure that the country’s preparations were in place. While some, like Masayo Oshio, felt the government might be overreacting, others took the opportunity to prepare. Across the Pacific coast, officials inspected evacuation shelters, and some municipalities opened shelters in anticipation. The advisory also spurred companies like thermal plant operator Jera Co. to reinforce their emergency protocols.
Despite skepticism from some experts, the warning served as a reminder to be prepared. Geller advised the public to ensure they have a week's supply of water, canned food, and batteries on hand, reinforcing the importance of routine earthquake precautions.
