Deepshikha Maan, Jadetimes Staff
D. Maan is a Jadetimes news reporter covering Asia
Kashmir and Haryana Present Electoral Surprises as Exit Polls Prove Inaccurate
On Tuesday, the northern Indian state of Haryana and Indian-administered Kashmir surpassed predictions during the vote counting for their assembly elections.
Congress NC Coalition Gains Momentum in Kashmir
In Kashmir, exit polls predominantly forecasted a hung assembly; nevertheless, the coalition between the Congress and the National Conference Party (NC) is poised for a decisive triumph in the 90 member legislature. This coalition is set to establish the government, contrary to previous forecasts.
BJP Defeats Congress in Haryana
In Haryana, where there are 90 assembly seats, forecasts of a Congress landslide were reversed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The BJP is poised to secure an uncommon third consecutive term, contradicting the predictions of pollsters. Contrary to prevalent beliefs regarding anti-incumbency against the BJP, the party exceeded predictions and retained its dominance in the state.
Importance of Kashmir Elections
The elections in Kashmir are particularly significant since they represent the first assembly votes in the region in ten years and the first since the central government abrogated its autonomy in 2019, transforming the region into a federally-administered territory. Despite the BJP's preeminence in the Hindu majority Jammu region, it struggled to establish a foothold in the Muslim majority Kashmir valley. The Congress NC coalition obtained sufficient seats to establish a government, indicating discontent with the Modi administration's annulment of the region's special status.
The Political Landscape of Haryana
Haryana, albeit less notable internationally than Kashmir, garners considerable attention within India. Adjacent to the national capital, Delhi, and recognized for its agricultural significance as part of the "breadbasket of India," Haryana's political transitions are constantly monitored. The BJP's capacity to secure a third term demonstrates its effectiveness in mitigating anti incumbency and establishing robust social coalitions, especially among various caste groupings.
Internal Conflict and Overconfidence within Congress in Haryana
Political analysts ascribe the Congress's defeat in Haryana to internal discord and excessive confidence. Sandeep Shastri, a political analyst, observed that the Congress "snatched defeat from the jaws of victory," attributing their failure to complacency and internal discord. Discrepancies between notable Congress leaders Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja allegedly diminished the party's attractiveness to voters.
Dispute in Haryana's Electoral Tally
The vote tally in Haryana has been contentious, with Congress alleging that the Election Commission deliberately postponed information on its website. Despite the optimism expressed by Congress leaders, especially Kumari Selja, the numerical evidence indicates a different outcome. The Election Commission has refuted the claims of discrepancies in the counting procedure.
Challenges Faced by the BJP in Kashmir
The BJP had considerable obstacles in Kashmir, where its backing is confined to the Hindu dominant Jammu area. The abrogation of Article 370, which conferred special status to Kashmir, continues to be a sensitive matter. Despite Prime Minister Modi's commitment to reinstating statehood to the region, the election outcomes suggest that this promise failed to resonate with the electorate in the valley.
Subpar Performance of the People's Democratic Party (PDP)
The disappointing performance of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), under the leadership of former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti, was one of the most unexpected results in Kashmir. The PDP, formerly a preeminent political entity in the region, secured merely three seats. Mufti recognized the outcomes, asserting that the populace perceived the Congress NC coalition as a means to ensure a more stable administration and safeguard the region against BJP dominance.
Analysts' Assessment of the Outcomes
Political analysts have assessed the ramifications of the electoral outcomes in Kashmir. Sheikh Showkat Hussain emphasized that people were demonstrating their dissent regarding the BJP’s policies and the abrogation of Article 370. Noor Mohammad Baba, another analyst, stated that the results conveyed a definitive message to the federal government to reevaluate its strategy on Jammu and Kashmir. As India prepares for more regional elections, particularly in Maharashtra and Delhi, the outcomes in Haryana and Kashmir are expected to impact the political landscape in the forthcoming months.
