By T. Jayani, JadeTimes News
Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are set to vote on Thursday to determine if Ursula von der Leyen will serve a second term as European Commission president. Despite von der Leyen's recent efforts to consolidate support, the outcome of the vote, scheduled for 13:00 (11:00 GMT) at the European Parliament in Brussels, remains uncertain.
European leaders officially nominated von der Leyen at a summit in Brussels at the end of June. This decision was met with resistance from Italy’s Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, who abstained from the vote, accusing fellow EU leaders of sidelining parties like hers from the discussions.
Von der Leyen, who has been the Commission president since 2019, needs 361 votes to secure a second term. While support from her centre right European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists & Democrats, and the liberal Renew Europe group should be sufficient, the secret nature of the vote adds an element of unpredictability. MEPs can vote based on personal inclinations rather than party directives.
Some Irish MEPs from centrist parties have expressed their intention to vote against von der Leyen due to her stance on the Gaza conflict. Similarly, some French MEPs from von der Leyen’s own EPP group have declared their opposition.
In the weeks leading up to the vote, von der Leyen has held private meetings with various parliamentary groups to secure their support. However, her efforts have had mixed results. The Left group announced their decision not to support her after a meeting, citing her stance on increasing military and defense spending as their reason.
Von der Leyen also met with the Greens, who showed some positive signals, although some members stated they would wait for her speech on Thursday before deciding. She reportedly gained support from some members of the right wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), although the Romanian, French, and Polish delegations remain opposed. Prime Minister Meloni, who leads the ECR, has yet to decide on instructing her 24 Italian MEPs on how to vote, though Italian media suggest she may endorse von der Leyen in exchange for a senior role in the next Commission, such as the economy or competition portfolios.
Meloni, leader of the far right Brothers of Italy party, has become a significant figure among European right wingers. The newly formed Patriots for Europe group, the third largest in Parliament, has declined to support von der Leyen. This group, founded by Hungary's Viktor Orban, includes leaders from far right parties in France, Austria, and the Netherlands.
If von der Leyen fails to secure enough votes, the EU will need to restart the process of selecting a candidate, who would then require parliamentary approval. Although there are some potential candidates, no clear frontrunner has emerged.
Von der Leyen was appointed five years ago after a last minute deal among EU leaders, winning with just nine votes over the required majority. Thursday's vote is expected to be similarly close.
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