By V.E.K.Madhushani, Jadetimes News
Strategic Operations Likely to Continue Amidst Regional Tensions
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent comments that the intense phase of fighting in Gaza is nearing its end essentially confirm what has been increasingly apparent in the past few months.
The Israeli army has portrayed its current operation in the southern city of Rafah as its last major ground offensive in Gaza. Despite international opposition, the operation proceeded, involving Israeli strikes that have resulted in numerous Palestinian civilian casualties. However, it has not seen the relentless bombardment that characterized earlier assaults on Gaza City and Khan Younis.
Israeli forces, backed by tanks, are still battling with Palestinian fighters in the west of Rafah, while the army continues to demolish numerous buildings in the city. The IDF has stated that it has severely degraded three of the four Hamas battalions that remain in Rafah, which was Israel's primary objective. This suggests the possibility that the army may soon declare the operation complete.
None of this offers solace to the people of Gaza, who have seen little to no respite. Casualty figures from Gaza's health ministry, run by Hamas, still record around 40 to 60 deaths a day. Israel continues to carry out strikes daily in other parts of Gaza both in the north and the center. There is currently no prospect of an end to this.
Central to Mr. Netanyahu's strategy in Gaza is maintaining the freedom for Israel to launch attacks whenever and wherever it deems necessary, even if all its troops eventually withdraw from the enclave.
In Washington, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has been discussing with top US officials what he referred to as Phase C the third, less intensive stage of Israel's campaign from relatively early in the conflict. He told US special envoy Amos Hochstein that the transition to Phase C would "impact developments on all fronts, and that Israel was preparing for every scenario both militarily and diplomatically." This message was likely reiterated in subsequent discussions with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
The reference to all fronts is particularly focused on Israel's northern border, where there has been a recent upsurge in both fighting and rhetoric in Israel's confrontation with the Lebanese armed movement Hezbollah. This has led to speculation that a new, all out war could be looming between Israel and another of its long term regional antagonists. Mr. Netanyahu has indicated that further scaling down the fighting in Gaza would allow for troops to be redeployed to the Lebanese border. To emphasize the increasing priority of this front for Israel, Mr. Netanyahu has observed troop drills near the border, and Israeli President Isaac Herzog has spent two days in the region, visiting both military units and several communities affected by Hezbollah's near daily attacks since October 8. Lebanese communities have also suffered as Israel has retaliated.
Whatever transpires on Israel's northern border, the conflict in Gaza, even at a reduced level of intensity, shows no sign of ending. Efforts towards a ceasefire have lost momentum again, with neither Israel nor Hamas appearing ready to fully embrace all elements of the proposal laid out by President Biden.
Discussions about the "Day After" are ongoing. The Israeli war cabinet was dissolved by Mr. Netanyahu after one of its members, Benny Gantz, resigned, citing the prime minister's failure to lay out a post war plan as the main reason for his resignation. It remains unclear if such a plan exists. In a recent interview, Mr. Netanyahu suggested that "military control in the foreseeable future will be ours." He elaborated, stating the intention to create a civilian administration, possibly involving local Palestinians and external backing from regional countries, to manage humanitarian supplies and later civilian affairs in Gaza. This aligns with the Biden administration's aspirations, with reports indicating that Egypt and the UAE are prepared to participate in a security force for Gaza post war.
However, the concept of a "Day After" in Gaza may be optimistic. Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters continue to reappear in areas from which they were previously driven out, engaging in a form of guerrilla warfare. Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military's chief spokesperson, has described the goal of completely eradicating Hamas as unrealistic, stating that "anyone who thinks we can eliminate Hamas is wrong."
Despite this, Mr. Netanyahu remains committed to his goal of totally defeating Hamas, both militarily and politically, though this may be subject to change in the coming weeks and months. He insists on Israel's freedom to continue military operations when necessary, even if a ceasefire is agreed. Reports suggest disappointment among US officials over Mr. Netanyahu's stance, as it undermines the cornerstone of President Biden's ceasefire plan.
Hamas has accused Mr. Netanyahu of preventing a ceasefire agreement, though officially the White House places the onus on Hamas. In Israel, families of the hostages still held in Gaza have increasingly blamed Mr. Netanyahu for obstructing the release of their relatives. In their latest demonstration, hostage's families blocked roads across Israel, setting a metal cage on fire with the word "Help" emblazoned on it. They accused Mr. Netanyahu of abandoning the hostages in favor of retaining his position.
The third phase of Israel's war in Gaza may be less intense, but with no sign of an imminent end, the prospects of a ceasefire, the release of hostages, and the beginning of a process to rebuild Palestinian lives remain on hold.