Chethma De Mel, Jadetimes Staff
C. J. De Mel is a Jadetimes news reporter covering Entertainment News
With only one day remaining to go before Election Day, the competition for the White House is at a razor-sharp edge both nationally and in those highly critical battleground states. It's a dead heat between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, who are almost in a deadlock according to polls. In tight margins, a slight change of two or three points in either direction could give the winning edge and make it among the most closely contested races in modern U.S. political history.
Each candidate has a unique path to convince voters, particularly in the crucial swing states, and both teams are working to turn out their respective coalitions.
Why Trump Could Win
Not Being the Incumbent
Economic issues now lead the concerns of many voters. While unemployment is low and the stock market continues to perform well, high living costs and inflation – at levels not seen since the 1970s – persist. "Are you better off now than you were four years ago? " Trump asks-a message that resonates with Americans as costs rise. In a year in which voters around the world have moved against incumbent governments, the outsider status of Trump may prove to be the difference-maker, since a majority of Americans has consistently said they are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in the country.
Meanwhile, Harris has not been able to create distance between herself and the administration of President Biden, and by association, the perception that she would represent a continuation of his policies.
Long-term Popularity Amid Controversies
Despite multiple indictments and ongoing fallout since the January 6 riot at the Capitol, Trump's base has remained strong throughout the year, with approval ratings above 40%. Supporters often view the following legal challenges as political, in itself creating much solidarity within his base. Both parties have been too dug in to budge; Trump will need to change just a fraction of the minds of undecided voters.
Stirring Concerns About Immigration
But apart from the economic issues, immigration has become a talking point. With record-high border encounters and the impact stretching well outside of border states, polls show that voters trust Trump on immigration. His message also appears to be resonating at higher rates with Latino voters than in previous elections.
Appeal to Non-College-Educated Voters
Trump's appeal to a demographic that feels disenfranchised-union workers and people without college degrees, a group that has trended more towards the Republican Party in recent years-is one he has framed at least implicitly as one of defense against the erosion of American industry and middle-class jobs. High turnout in the suburbs and rural areas from these groups might counterbalance some of his likely losses among moderate college-educated Republicans.
Stronger Under Global Turmoil
Many people view him as a strong leader who will stand up for the interests of the United States. His supporters consider his unpredictability an asset to draw from the fact that no major wars were triggered during his leading. The aid given to Ukraine and Israel, totaling in too many billions of dollars thus far, has led many Americans to believe the U.S. comes out weaker under Biden's tenure. Trump appeals to male voters especially, using popular mediums like Joe Rogan's podcast in reinforcing his image of a strong, firm leader.
Why Harris Could Win
Not Being Trump
Despite Trump's strengths, he remains a polarizing figure. His 2020 loss, despite record turnout for a Republican, underlined the strength of opposition to him. This year, Harris has emphasized the stakes of a Trump return, labeling him a "threat to democracy" and positioning herself as a candidate who will move the country beyond the divisive rhetoric of the past.
With 80% of Americans feeling the country is spiraling out of control, Harris hopes to draw in moderate Republicans and independents looking for stability.
A Break from Biden
After Biden's withdrawal from the race, Harris quickly made her move to galvanize the Democratic Party behind her candidacy. While the GOP has attempted to tie her to the unpopular policy ideas of Biden, she does avoid some criticism previously attached to the Biden campaign. Biden's age, polled constantly as a major concern for citizens, is now a question aimed at Trump, who will be the oldest president to ever assume office.
Women's Rights
The overturning of Roe v. Wade has galvanized voters concerned about reproductive rights. This election marks the first since the Supreme Court's decision, and support for abortion rights heavily leans toward Harris. Ten states, including the swing state of Arizona, have ballot initiatives on abortion that could raise turnout for Harris and pad her advantage among women.
Reliable Turnout in Her Base
On Harris's side, the demographics involve college-educated and older voters. These groups generally have higher turnout. On the other side, Trump has improved his support among younger men and those without college degrees, but such groups tend to vote less. While the polls reflect that Trump has deep support among registered voters who didn't turn out in 2020, the task is there to get low-turnout groups to the polls.
Advantage in Fundraising and Spending
The 2024 election is expected to be among the most expensive on record in the United States, and Harris enjoys a financial advantage over her competition. Indeed, she has outraised Trump since becoming the Democratic nominee, allowing her campaign to spend nearly twice as much on advertising. In what was shaping up to be a close contest, that extra money could prove to be the critical factor in swing states where voters are seeing political ads daily.
With polls as tight as they are, the 2024 election may come down to the wire, with either candidate in a position to win. As the campaigns enter the final push, the outcome may rest on which coalition of voters gets out more effectively on Election Day.
