By I. Hansana, Jadetimes News
The second annual "Indicators of Global Climate Change" report, spearheaded by the University of Leeds, reveals a significant increase in human induced global warming. Over the past decade (2014:2023), the average warming attributable to human activities has risen to 1.19°C, up from 1.14°C in the previous decade (2013:2022).
In 2023 alone, human activity caused global temperatures to rise by 1.3°C. However, the total warming experienced in 2023 reached 1.43°C, indicating that natural climate variability, particularly El Niño, also contributed to the year's record temperatures.
The analysis highlights a critical concern: the remaining carbon budget, which represents the amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted before surpassing the 1.5°C global warming threshold, stands at approximately 200 gigatons equivalent to about five years of current emission levels.
In 2020, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C to be between 300 and 900 gigatons, with a central estimate of 500 gigatons. Continuous CO2 emissions and rising global temperatures have since reduced this budget, with 2024 estimates placing it between 100 and 450 gigatons, centering on 200 gigatons.
Professor Piers Forster, Director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds, who coordinates the Indicators of Global Climate Change Project, remarked, "Our analysis shows that human caused global warming has continued to rise over the past year, despite slowed greenhouse gas emissions growth due to climate action. Global temperatures are increasing more rapidly than ever."
Forster noted that their analysis aims to track long term trends from human activities, with observed temperatures reflecting these trends combined with short term natural variations. He added, "Last year’s record temperatures were partly due to natural factors, temporarily amplifying the long term warming by around 10%."
This report comes as climate experts gather in Bonn to lay the groundwork for the COP29 climate conference in November in Baku, Azerbaijan. With the next major IPCC assessment not due until 2027, this report aims to bridge the "information gap" by providing up to date climate indicators as changes occur rapidly.
The new report is supported by the Climate Change Tracker's Indicators of Global Climate Change dashboard, offering open data and science access to key climate indicators. The report, authored by over 50 scientists and published in "Earth System Science Data," also sheds light on the impact of reduced sulfur emissions from global shipping.
Sulfur emissions have historically cooled the climate by reflecting sunlight and aiding in cloud formation. However, reductions in these emissions have diminished this cooling effect. Although offset temporarily by aerosols from Canadian wildfires, the long term trend indicates a continued decline in the cooling impact of aerosol emissions.