By T. Jayani, JadeTimes News
Approximately 240 million people are eligible to vote in this year's US election, but only a small fraction of them will likely determine the next president.
Experts suggest that only a few states could realistically be won by either the Democratic candidate, likely Kamala Harris, or the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump. Six pivotal states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are on a knife's edge and are expected to be crucial in deciding who will occupy the White House. Consequently, both parties are intensely campaigning to win over undecided voters in these states.
Arizona
In 2020, Biden secured the presidency with support from Arizona, which narrowly voted for a Democratic candidate for the first time since the 1990s. The state, bordering Mexico for hundreds of miles, has become central to the national immigration debate. Record high arrivals at the US border under Biden have posed significant electoral challenges, prompting him to toughen his stance and plan border shutdowns during surges. Trump has criticized Harris’s record on immigration, given her responsibility for the border under Biden, and has promised the largest deportation operation in US history if re-elected. Arizona has also been embroiled in a heated abortion debate, with state Republicans attempting to reinstate a near total ban on abortion, a contentious issue since the US Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in 2022.
Georgia
Georgia’s status as a swing state is underscored by the efforts of Trump backed officials to contest Biden’s 2020 win. Trump and 18 others face charges of conspiring to overturn his narrow defeat in Georgia, although the case may not go to trial before the election. The state’s large African-American population, which significantly contributed to Biden’s 2020 victory, is experiencing reported disillusionment, citing insufficient progress on racial justice and economic issues.
Michigan
Michigan, which has voted for the winning presidential candidate in the last two elections, symbolizes backlash over Biden’s support for Israel during its war in Gaza. In the February Democratic primary, over 100,000 voters chose the “uncommitted” option, influenced by activists advocating for a US backed Gaza ceasefire and a halt to military aid to Israel. Michigan, home to the largest proportion of Arab-Americans in the US, saw a potential threat to Biden’s support. Trump, recognizing Michigan's importance, has called for Israel to quickly conclude its campaign in Gaza.
Nevada
Despite traditionally voting Democrat, Nevada shows signs of a potential Republican turnaround. Polls indicate Trump had a significant lead over Biden, though the impact of Harris as a candidate remains to be seen. Both parties are targeting the state’s large Latino population. Nevada’s post Covid recovery has lagged, with the highest unemployment rate in the country, presenting an economic challenge for Biden, who has touted strong national economic growth and job creation. Trump promises lower taxes and fewer regulations if re-elected.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania faces significant cost of living pressures due to high inflation, particularly in grocery prices, affecting voter sentiment. The state was crucial in Biden’s 2020 victory, with his deep ties to the working class city of Scranton. Trump has criticized Biden over high prices, but faces competition from Republican primary rival Nikki Haley, who performed well in the state.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin, which narrowly voted for the winning candidate in both 2016 and 2020, could see a notable impact from third party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who could disrupt the vote counts for Biden or Trump. Trump views Wisconsin as critical to his victory, and the state will host the summer Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Biden highlights a new Microsoft data center in Wisconsin as evidence of job creation, contrasting it with Trump's record.
The focus of both parties on these six swing states underscores their importance in the 2024 election, with significant implications for national policies and voter priorities.
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