Thiloththama Jayasinghe, Jadetimes Staff
T. Jayasinghe is a Jadetimes News reporter covering Sri Lankan Politics
The Sri Lankan Presidential Election on 21 September has received ample attention inside the country and also in the region. This election is also significant for a number of "firsts": It is the first election after the mass uprising now known as "aragalaya" and the economic crisis; there are four heavyweight candidates among 39 contestants; and this is the first time Tamil parties have fielded their own candidate. The uncertainty factor of this election is very high in view of the volatile situation and the political alliances that could go either way, as could the people's verdict.
2024 Election: An Indian Perspective
The present election is the first to be held since political and economic crises began to cast their spell in 2022 in Sri Lanka. This crisis was essentially due to profound economic problems in the form of budget and trade deficits, rising debt, and drastic reduction of foreign reserves. That economic meltdown manifested in the shortage of essentials, hyperinflation, and active public discontent with mass protests. It reached a point where the protestors stormed the Presidential Palace-a reason which provoked President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign.
As far as India is concerned, the crisis in Sri Lanka was viewed with much alarm, since it might have far-reaching repercussions on the stability of the whole region. India moved swiftly on its "Neighborhoods First" and "Security and Growth for All in the Region" policies, hence providing close to $4 billion in assistance through various means like loan deferrals, currency swaps, grants, and humanitarian relief with a view to stabilize Sri Lanka and also check the ascendant influence of China in the region. It also played a decisive role in Sri Lanka's negotiations with the IMF and was a member of the Official Creditors Committee that restructured Sri Lankan debt.
Uncertainty and Challenges Ahead
Despite recent efforts by India to help Sri Lanka, much uncertainty still prevails on the island nation's political future. This presidential election pits four major candidates-Ranil Wickremesinghe, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Namal Rajapaksa, and Sajith Premadasa-against one another, all with their different political persuasions and slants in governance. Therefore, on a diplomatic note, India has engaged with all the major candidates, anticipating any result and hence the requirement to be fully prepared for any eventual surprises.
Fishermen's Dispute and the 13th Amendment
One of the big irritants in India's relations with Sri Lanka is the 13th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution-so as to provide for the devolution of powers to the provinces. Part of the Indo-Sri Lanka Accord of 1987, this amendment is held by India as imperative to guarantee justice and equality in Sri Lanka. Yet, its full practice, in particular with respect to land and police powers, has remained controversial, as the fear it may embolden Tamil secessionism and result in a backlash from the Sinhalese majority. Among the main contenders, only Sajith Premadasa has vowed to fully enforce the 13th Amendment, while the others have suggested variations or remained silent.
Other ongoing issues are the dispute of the signals between the Indian and Sri Lankan fishermen; the controversy has led to large-scale arrests and incidents of violence. This was underlined by the recent killing of a Sri Lankan Navy sailor and an Indian fisherman. India called on Sri Lanka to resolve this matter in a humanitarian approach and hopes that this issue gets a permanent solution in the times to come.
Connectivity and Domestic Politics
India has been vigorously pursuing connectivity and economic integration with Sri Lanka, especially in the context of the recent economic crisis. Some of the major initiatives undertaken relate to port development, airports, and energy infrastructure. Most of the projects have been plagued by domestic political controversies in Sri Lanka, opposition parties targeting government interaction with India, and compromising national interests. They might well be slowed or reviewed if the coming election brings a victory or at least renewed vigor to nationalist forces.
The China Factor
Whoever wins in the election, India remains uneasy about China's growing clout in Sri Lanka. Chinese investments and loans have made China a critical factor in the Sri Lankan economy, while its activities in the region-from leasing key ports to docking military vessels-have served as a security threat for India. On its part, Sri Lanka is keen to maintain good ties with China to tap into its economic potential and improve its bargaining power with other global players, including India.
There is thus an awareness of the post-election dynamics and how to deal with these given the fundamental realities of the relationship. In the case of India, for instance, sustained engagement with the new dispensation in Sri Lanka-whoever wins-would be a pragmatic continuation of its strategy thus far. This would include extending a package of alternate development partnerships and projects on one side, balanced by expecting the new dispensation to respect basic Indian redlines-particularly relating to increased Chinese presence in the region.
The result of the polls, due on 21 September, is still not clear, with its implication for India multi-layered. A new set of challenges may arise from the fishermen's dispute, the 13th Amendment, various connectivity projects, and the role of China in all these. But India has been trying to position itself to meet any possible shock or opportunities likely to emerge out of this critical election by not taking any partisan stand and reaching out to all major stakeholders.
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