By T. Jayani, JadeTimes News
Nearly five years after the people of Bougainville overwhelmingly voted for independence from Papua New Guinea (PNG) in a 2019 referendum, frustrations are growing as the political process stalls.
In the 2019 referendum, over 97 percent of the approximately 300,000 residents of Bougainville, an autonomous region in eastern PNG, voted for independence over greater autonomy. However, any change in political status requires ratification by PNG's parliament. After high level talks broke down, the parliamentary ratification, initially expected last year, did not occur. According to Professor Anthony Regan from the Australian National University's Department of Pacific Affairs, achieving ratification this year is possible but not yet likely.
Major disagreements last year about the ratification process led to a stalemate between the national and Bougainville governments. Bougainville insists on a simple majority vote in parliament, while PNG demands a two thirds majority. Both sides have agreed on the need for an international moderator to break the deadlock, but such an appointment will take time.
"I am not too satisfied with the current progress of Bougainville’s independence. It’s almost five years since the referendum, and there is still no positive response from the PNG government,” said Barbara Tanne, president of the Bougainville Women’s Federation. Theresa Jaintong, a local government member in Arawa, Central Bougainville, added that the lack of progress is deeply "frustrating" and urged the PNG government to clarify its position.
Ishmael Toroama, the former rebel fighter elected Bougainville’s president in 2020 with a mandate to achieve statehood, is under increasing pressure. Last month, he called on PNG’s parliament to honor their promises. "I am committed to the independence of Bougainville," he said.
Bougainville has long sought to manage its own affairs since being incorporated into PNG in 1975. Demands for secession intensified in the 1980s due to the environmental and social impacts of the Panguna copper mine, which was then majority owned by British Australian mining giant Rio Tinto and the PNG government. An armed uprising in 1989 shut down the mine and sparked a civil war that lasted until 1998. A peace agreement in 2001 led to autonomous government in 2005 and the 2019 referendum.
Despite the strong vote for independence, PNG's leaders have shown reluctance to let the region break away. PNG Prime Minister James Marape emphasized the need for parliamentary approval and acknowledged Bougainville’s request for an independent moderator. "While I personally sympathize with the desires of Bougainville, as prime minister, I must uphold our sovereignty and the rule of law," Marape said in May.
This stance could create tensions. "If the national government says no and does not want to ratify the referendum result, then Bougainville may take harsh and heavy actions," warned Peter Arwin, a landowner in Panguna, Central Bougainville.
Regan noted that a ‘no’ vote from PNG would likely signal an end to discussions about independence and might lead to exploration of other options, such as greater autonomy. However, Bougainville’s Attorney General and Minister for Independence, Ezekiel Masatt, has rejected this idea.
The controversy over the Panguna mine, which was central to the civil war, continues. In May, nearly 4,000 local landowners and residents filed a class action suit against Rio Tinto, seeking billions in compensation for the mine's social and environmental impacts. Bougainville's Toroama condemned the lawsuit, viewing it as a hindrance to Bougainville’s economic independence agenda.
The lawsuit might disrupt a government backed mediation process already in place between Rio Tinto and stakeholders. Rio Tinto agreed to fund an impact assessment of the Panguna mine, with an initial report due in September. "There is a strong expectation from community and government stakeholders that Rio Tinto will commit to funding remediation after the Phase 1 impact assessment report," said Keren Adams, legal director of the Human Rights Law Centre in Melbourne.
Despite the mine's potential as a revenue source for Bougainville's economic self sufficiency, it could take a decade and billions of dollars to rebuild. Currently, only about 10 percent of Bougainville residents have access to electricity, and just 16 percent of households have proper sanitation. The island remains financially reliant on the national government and international donors, with less than 20 percent of the government's budget this year coming from internal sources.
Some experts suggest that if PNG does not grant independence, Bougainville might consider a unilateral declaration, making international support even more crucial. Toroama has sought backing from the United States and Australia, visiting Washington, DC, last November to seek support from the Biden administration.