Chethana Janith, Jadetimes Staff
C. Janith is a Jadetimes news reporter covering science and geopolitics.
The shifting alliances in South Asia are reshaping regional dynamics, as longstanding rivalries between Pakistan, India, and their neighbors take on new dimensions with significant geopolitical and economic implications.
Since the collapse of Hasina Wajid’s government in Bangladesh, the country has altered its regional outlook by moving away from India and forging ties with Pakistan. On the other hand, India is looking for new regional strategic partners to counter this diplomatic victory of its arch-rival. After border clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan, India has sided with the latter, leading to a strategic shift in the region.
The Rivalry Between Pakistan and India
Since their creation, Pakistan and India have been attempting to outdo each other in every aspect. The foreign policy of both countries has always been predicated on their attempt to outshine the other. Both the arch-rivals have fought three major wars and Kashmir issues remain to be the point of contention between them. In 1971, India succeeded in causing Pakistan irreparable damage by assisting the separatist organizations of its Eastern wing, leading to the creation of Bangladesh.
Since then, India and Bangladesh enjoyed fraternal ties, motivated by their rivalry towards Pakistan. On the other hand, the latter has strengthened relations with China and other neighboring countries. Pakistan has always attempted to forge fraternal ties with Afghanistan. However, the US-led “War on Terror” altered this situation. Pakistan’s provision of bases to the US forces and its alleged patronage of the Afghan Taliban*, despite its hospitality of millions of Afghan refugees, shattered its image among the Afghani citizens. The Afghans living across the Pak-Afghan border, fallaciously, assume the former as the key player in the destruction of their country.
Shifting Dynamics After the Taliban’s Takeover
After Kabul’s takeover by the Afghan Taliban, the Pakistani authorities, assuming their positive role in ending the US-Afghan war and sheltering the families of Afghan Taliban, were optimistic that their relations with the Western neighbor of the country would fortify. Pakistani officials, since then, have advocated for the interim Afghan government at global levels. Pakistan’s former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto even opposed the Western sanctions on Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the US forces. He advocated a softer approach towards the country to avoid the looming humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.
Historically, Pakistan has been a significant developmental partner of Afghanistan. It provided humanitarian aid to the Afghan citizens after the establishment of the Taliban government in Afghanistan and subsequent US sanctions on the country. However, the outcome of the Taliban takeover in Kabul is quite contradictory to the expectations of the Pakistani government. The interim Afghan government, in violation of the Doha agreement, has provided shelter and support to different terrorist groups, especially those against Pakistan, like Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), and many others.
The surge in terrorist attacks at an unanticipated level and the use of Afghan soil by TTP and BLA to conduct terrorist activities in Pakistan has severed the relations between the two sides. The latter has repeatedly appealed to the Afghan government to halt its support and assistance to these groups. However, the ideological symmetry between the TTP and the Afghan Taliban and being indebted to the former due to its military support against the US army, the latter remained ignorant to such appeals and requests by the Pakistani government. The Afghan interim setup, domestically, faces the accusation of being implanted and established by Pakistan. Their action against the TTP and BLA, whom the Afghan Information Minister has declared their ‘guests’, would further cement this sham allegation.
Furthermore, the fear of internal discord and rebellion also coerces the Afghan Taliban to remain ignorant of the cross-border terrorist activities of these militant organizations. Ultimately, Pakistan’s security establishment decided to target TTP hideouts in Afghanistan after the 21st December terrorist attacks. This led to significant border clashes between the two sides. India, the erstwhile stringent opponent of the Afghan Taliban, was quick to sympathize with the Interim Afghan government and used the opportunity to establish its ties with Afghanistan. In a rare transpiration, on 8th January, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met with the acting Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai.
After the meeting, the latter declared India “a significant regional and economic partner.” The Indian government also agreed to collaborate with the Taliban government on developmental projects. This Indian move seems to be motivated by the strengthening of Pak-Bangladesh relations. After the ouster of Hasina Wajid from the government in Bangladesh, India has experienced bitter relations with the country. China’s increasing investment in Bangladesh has also diminished Indian influence in the country. Furthermore, the interim government of Bangladesh’s decision to procure Short Range Ballistic Missiles, Abdali missiles, from Pakistan and the upcoming joint military exercises between the two countries have forced India to establish relations with Afghanistan to establish a balance of power in the region.
The Regional Arms Race and Its Consequences
Pakistan and India’s perennial aspirations to counter and outdo each other in the region and beyond could jeopardize regional peace and stability by starting a new arms race in South Asia. Furthermore, this approach also diverges the focus of the two governments from domestic issues like healthcare, education, and poverty. A possible arms race between the two sides will also strengthen terrorist groups and accentuate terrorist activities, which will further destabilize the region and increase poverty. In Pakistan, more than 25 percent of people are living below the poverty line.
Meanwhile, in India, over 1.1 billion people are living in acute poverty. Therefore, it is a pivotal moment for the two South Asian nuclear powers to make decisive and pragmatic decisions for the peace and stability of the region. While interregional trade in South Asia stands at a mere 5 percent, the regional powers must learn from ASEAN that their mutual trade and dependence is the only way to poverty elevation and regional prosperity. Both countries should reorient their policies from military-centric to people-centric to achieve domestic as well as regional stability.
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