By C. Perera, JadeTimes News
Earth warmed at its fastest rate ever in 2023, with human activity responsible for 92% of the previous year's extreme heat, according to a thorough investigation by 57 scientists worldwide. After studying the reasons of the deadly heat wave of the previous year using UN approved methods, the researchers came to the conclusion that, despite the acceleration of warming, there is no compelling evidence of an acceleration of human-caused climate change beyond rising fossil fuel usage.
Leeds University climate scientist and lead author Piers Forster stressed that although conditions are becoming worse and temperatures are rising as expected, the world is not close to reaching a severe tipping point. The scientists mainly blamed the buildup of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels for the record temperatures.
The rate of warming reached 0.26 in 2023,degrees Celsius which is the highest pace ever recorded. It was 0.25 degrees Celsius the year before. Forster pointed out that while this growth is noteworthy, it does not represent a significant shift. According to the study, which was published in Earth System Science Data, human activity was responsible for 1.31 of the 1.43 degrees Celsius increase in temperature in 2023 over the average of 1850 to 1900. The remaining 8 percent of warming was primarily caused by El Niño, anomalous warming in the Atlantic, and other sporadic weather phenomena.
Global temperatures have increased by about 1.19 degrees Celsius in the last ten years compared to pre-industrial periods. The authors issued a warning that if coal, oil, and natural gas usage continue, Earth's temperature might rise above the globally accepted 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold in 4.5 years, which is consistent with previous estimates indicating that, should emissions continue, this promise might be made by early 2029. If this limit is exceeded, there will be dire repercussions, such as the possible loss of species, Arctic sea ice, coral reefs, and more, in addition to more intense extreme weather occurrences.
Study co author Sonia Seneviratne of ETH Zurich said that September 2023's anomalous temperature rise apart, the year stayed within expected ranges, if on the upper end. Outside experts noted signs of acceleration, such as Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth and Jonathan Overpeck from the University of Michigan. Hausfather noted that the current rate of warming is significantly higher than the 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade observed between 1970 and 2010.
The investigation found insufficient heat from otherpossible explanations for the September anomaly, which Hausfather called "gobsmacking." The researchers found that carbon emissions from Canadian wildfires negated the reduction in sulphur pollution from shipping, which had previously had a cooling effect. Furthermore, cooling particles and heat-trapping water vapour were emitted by an underwater volcano, counteracting each other's effects. The Nature Conservancy's Katharine Hayhoe of Texas Tech stressed how human activity will ultimately determine the pace and degree of future global warming.