By I. Hansana, Jadetimes News
Rising Sea Levels to Disrupt Millions of American's Lives by 2050, Study Finds
A new study by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) warns that rising sea levels, driven by global warming, will significantly disrupt the daily lives of millions of Americans by 2050. The study projects that hundreds of homes, schools, and government buildings will face frequent and repeated flooding.
By 2050, nearly 1,100 critical infrastructure assets in coastal communities will be at risk of monthly flooding, with 934 of them facing biweekly disruptions. This level of flooding could render many coastal neighborhoods uninhabitable within the next two to three decades.
Currently, almost 3 million people live in 703 U.S. coastal communities with critical infrastructure at risk of monthly flooding by 2050. These infrastructures include affordable housing, wastewater treatment plants, toxic industrial sites, power plants, fire stations, schools, and hospitals.
The number of critical infrastructure assets at risk of disruptive flooding is expected to nearly double by 2050 compared to 2020, assuming a medium rate of sea level rise. States such as California, Florida, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, and New Jersey are identified as having the most critical infrastructure that needs to be made flood resilient or relocated.
The study highlights that the burden of coastal flooding will disproportionately affect disadvantaged communities. More than half of the critical assets facing frequent flooding by 2050 are located in areas already affected by historic and current structural racism, discrimination, and pollution. These communities have higher proportions of Black, Latino, and Native American residents, and public and affordable housing is the most at risk infrastructure.
Routine flooding of critical infrastructure could lead to significant hardships for vulnerable populations. Children may have to travel further for education and medical care, and local water supplies could be contaminated by flooding of polluted sites. Failing to address resilience in these communities risks perpetuating the legacy of environmental racism and colonialism, according to Juan Declet Barreto, a senior social scientist for climate vulnerability at UCS.
The UCS report, "Looming Deadlines for Coastal Resilience," comes at a crucial time in the climate emergency. Despite increasing fossil fuel production in countries like the U.S., UK, Norway, Canada, China, and Brazil, communities worldwide are facing deadly heatwaves, floods, and droughts with greater frequency and intensity. Slow onset climate disasters such as desertification, melting glaciers, and sea level rise are driving up costs, causing the loss of homes and livelihoods, and forcing displacement.
The study also found that by 2030, the number of critical buildings and facilities at risk of routine and repeated flooding along U.S. coastlines is expected to grow by 20% compared to 2020. In Charleston, South Carolina, high tide floods were recorded more than 20 times in 2023. By 2050, at least 23 essential infrastructure pieces, including 17 public housing buildings, in Charleston are expected to flood at least twice annually.
UCS researchers used data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauges and three sea level rise scenarios developed by a U.S. Interagency Task Force to identify at risk critical infrastructure. These infrastructures include buildings and facilities necessary for daily life, which, if flooded, could cause environmental hazards.
The analysis focused on flooding driven by sea level rise and tidal heights, excluding other climate related drivers such as storm surge and heavy rainfall. The amount of sea level rise by the end of the century will depend on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, without urgent action to reinforce critical infrastructure, the number of at risk schools, apartment buildings, energy facilities, and government buildings could rise sevenfold by 2100.
Currently, 7.5 million people live in 1,758 coastal communities with critical infrastructure at risk of frequent and repeated flooding by the century's end. Assuming a medium case scenario, around 4,800 buildings and facilities along U.S. coastlines could face disruptive flooding every fortnight by 2100.
Erika Spanger, co author and director of strategic climate analytics at UCS, emphasized the urgent need for action, “Even if their homes stay dry, disruptive flooding of vital infrastructure could leave people stranded within their communities or enduring unlivable conditions. There’s a rapidly approaching deadline for many coastal communities that demands urgent attention.”