By T. Jayani, JadeTimes News
The recent defense agreement between Russia and North Korea unmistakably underscores Russian President Vladimir Putin's intent to dismantle the current international order. However, this pact may also strain Russia's relationship with China, potentially disrupting their collective efforts to challenge Western unity.
In June, Putin had a busy schedule. During a speech at Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, he proposed terms for peace negotiations with Ukraine and suggested creating an alternative international security system with China. Shortly after, on a two day visit to Pyongyang, he signed a strategic defense pact with North Korean leader Kim Jong un. This agreement commits both nations to provide immediate military assistance to each other in the event of war, clearly demonstrating Russia's resolve to undermine the US led international system by forging alliances with other authoritarian regimes.
In his comprehensive address on June 14, just ahead of a Ukraine led peace summit in Switzerland, Putin touched on numerous issues. He discussed the ongoing "special military operation" in Ukraine, the inevitable emergence of a new multipolar world order, and the West's efforts to "restrain the development of the Global South," highlighting Russia's leadership of the BRICS+ group (comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, along with Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE).
Putin's terms for peace in Ukraine included demands for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the four regions annexed by Russia in 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky promptly rejected these terms, which resembled Putin's initial invasion ultimatum. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg supported Zelensky, insisting that Russia must withdraw from Ukrainian territory. Even Russian commentators viewed Putin's demands as unrealistic, interpreting them as an attempt to pressure the West rather than a sincere peace effort.
Putin reiterated that Russia is at war not just with Ukraine, but with the West, especially the United States. Predicting the imminent collapse of the "Euro Atlantic security system," he proposed a five step plan for establishing a Eurasian system of collective security guarantees. This framework, Putin suggested, would complement Chinese global security initiatives, furthering the "no limits" partnership between Russia and China. He urged European countries to reconsider the military presence of "external powers in the Eurasian region," a clear challenge to NATO principles. While many of Putin's arguments were familiar, his focus on the Global South, particularly Africa and Latin America, was notable. He emphasized BRICS+ as a counterbalance to Western power and supported developing an independent payment system for its members, aiming to weaken the global financial system dominated by the West and mitigate the impact of US led sanctions.
Putin's timing was strategic, aiming to influence key policy debates in the West and affect election campaigns, such as in France, where Marine Le Pen’s National Rally could challenge European strategies on Russia. A significant part of Putin's speech was directed at the European Union, which he views as subservient to the US. He appealed to "true European and global leaders" reminiscent of Charles de Gaulle, advocating for Europe’s well being through friendly relations with Russia.
However, Putin did not acknowledge his role in undermining the global order. Russia, along with China, has long acted as a disruptor in the UN Security Council. Recent actions, like vetoing a humanitarian mission in Syria and shutting down a panel monitoring sanctions on North Korea, have alarmed diplomats. The terms of the security pact with Kim echo the 1961 Soviet North Korean treaty and represent a significant escalation. Besides North Korea's support for Russia's war in Ukraine, the agreement signals increased Russian backing for Kim’s nuclear ambitions, which could unsettle North Korea’s neighbors, including China.
In response, South Korea summoned the Russian ambassador and considered sending weapons to Ukraine. China, North Korea's primary trading partner, has distanced itself from this rogue alliance. Yet, Russia’s actions could erode China’s influence over North Korea and heighten tensions with the West, potentially undermining Chinese President Xi Jinping’s long term goals.
Given Putin's relentless efforts to undermine Western unity and the current international order, the West should seize any opportunity to exploit potential rifts between Russia and China. Putin’s alliance with Kim offers a strategic opening to weaken the Sino Russian partnership.