By V.E.K.Madhushani, Jadetimes News
All wars end with negotiations. It’s not the soldiers in the trenches who decide when.
Arni joined the Ukrainian army in 2022 to fight for his country’s survival. When we catch up with him 30 months later, his focus has shifted. "Peace," he says. “No one likes war; we want to finish it,” he remarks, leaning against his camouflaged pick up truck.
For the troops stationed near Russia’s border, there's a strong desire to end the invasion on terms they can accept. While survival remains a core motivation, they are clearly striving for a conclusion. “For Ukraine, our people, we’ll stand until the end,” adds Arni.
Until August 6, Ukraine’s primary objective was liberation driving Russian forces back to the pre 2014 borders. Despite slow progress, Moscow has steadily eroded Ukrainian territory over the past year and a half. Then came an unexpected counter offensive into Russia’s Kursk region, surprising everyone except the battle hardened Ukrainian soldiers who carried it out.
“It was undeniably successful and daring,” observes Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Co operation Centre, a think tank. Kyiv now frequently references the operation, showcasing countless images of troops distributing aid and tearing down Russian flags. “It also changes the narrative,” says Alina Frolova, a security expert and former deputy defense minister of Ukraine. “A situation where we’re losing territory step by step is not a good one. Ukraine’s strategic position has changed.”
Despite the similarities to Russia’s initial invasion, Kyiv insists its goal is not to occupy Russian territory. So what is the aim? There are multiple objectives.
Buffer Zone
“This attack was partly carried out to better protect the city of Sumy,” explains Serhii Kuzan, emphasizing that the border remains a front line. Since the start of this summer, President Volodymyr Zelensky has reported more than 2,000 strikes on the Sumy region from Kursk, including 250 glide bombs. Fears of a potential cross border attack by Russian troops prompted the Ukrainian offensive, which, according to Serhii, will make defending Ukraine easier. “The [now captured] Russian city of Sudzha is on a commanding height. The Russians are now in a less advantageous position because we control the approach routes.”
While Russia has had to react to Ukraine on the battlefield, it has also seen its supply lines targeted, with key roads seized and a strategically important bridge destroyed.
Redeployment of Russian Forces
“The main purpose of this offensive into Kursk is to divert Russia’s attention from its occupied territories in Ukraine,” says Ivan Stupak, a former Ukrainian security service officer. The strategy seems to be working, as Russian forces have been redeploying troops from various regions, including Kherson, Kharkiv, and Donetsk. However, Russian advances towards the town of Pokrovsk continue unabated. Ivan estimates that around 10,000 Russian personnel are being diverted, mostly from other parts of Russia.
The 'Exchange Fund'
President Zelensky refers to Ukraine’s collection of captured Russian soldiers as an "exchange fund." Historically, when Ukraine gains momentum, it captures more prisoners, making it easier to negotiate the release of its own soldiers. The Kursk offensive has been no exception, with Kyiv reporting hundreds of Russian troops taken prisoner. Drone footage shows several surrendering and being taken back to Ukraine blindfolded. “Moscow is actually offering to start negotiations to exchange prisoners of war,” says Serhii Kuzan. “It is no longer us enlisting the support of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to ask Russia to hand over our prisoners of war.”
Pressure
This is a significant factor for Kyiv. On a civilian level, the people of Kursk experienced horror and anger in response to the Ukrainian assault on their homes, leading to mass evacuations and pleas for help. On a political level, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly addressed the situation in Moscow, while being briefed by his security chiefs. And, of course, there is the military aspect. “The influence of this Ukrainian incursion could be quite substantial,” concludes Alina Frolova. “That’s why using highly professional troops was specifically the right decision.”
Future Bargaining Chips
If Ukraine doesn’t plan to hold onto the captured Russian territory long term but can maintain control long enough, it hopes to leverage it for the release of its own land. But that’s a big "if." When fighting slows, it usually benefits Russia, given its superior size. However, Ukraine has often succeeded with misdirection and surprise tactics. “In a symmetric war, we have no chances with Russia,” notes Alina Frolova. “We need to make asymmetrical actions.”
Slowing advances in the Kursk region may present Kyiv with tough decisions, but Serhii Kuzan argues that as long as there is movement, there are benefits. “An advance rate of 1 - 3km a day is normal for swapping forward units with reserves,” he says. “In Ukraine’s Donbas region, the average advance rate for the Russians is 400 meters. Our pace in the Kursk region is five times faster than a 100,000 strong army!” However, the problem for Kyiv is that Russians are still making progress in Ukraine.
Don’t expect Ukraine to withdraw from its Russian offensive anytime soon. It is fully committed now.
And What About Vladimir Putin?
Russia’s president initially labeled the offensive as a “terrorist attack” and “provocation,” but in the days since, he has barely mentioned it publicly. Despite the operation fitting into his narrative that Russia’s invasion is a defensive war to protect his people, Putin has remained relatively quiet. Perhaps he doesn’t want the alarm felt by many in the Kursk region to spread or for it to appear that his military doesn’t have control of the situation. As seen with past crises, such as the Kursk submarine disaster and the failed coup of last year, Putin doesn’t always act quickly to regain the initiative. Ukraine will be hoping he’s slow to respond this time because he simply can’t.
