By V.E.K.Madhushani, Jadetimes News
Macron's Election Gamble, Potential Power Shift Amid Rising Far Right Influence
Emmanuel Macron's Risky Election Gamble Amid Rising Far Right Influence
Emmanuel Macron's decision to call two rounds of elections on 30 June and 7 July is seen by both rivals and allies as a reckless gamble that could potentially hand political power to the far right. Despite his aim to regain control of French politics, opinion polls suggest otherwise.
The Reason for the Elections
An hour after the far right National Rally party, led by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, defeated Emmanuel Macron’s Renew alliance in the European elections, the French president addressed the nation. National Rally secured 31.4% of the vote, while Macron’s party garnered only 14.6%. In response, Macron called for a coalition among the French people and politicians who do not identify with the "extremist fever."
Although there was no immediate need to call National Assembly elections they were last held in June 2022 with no further vote due until 2027 Macron insisted it was the "most responsible solution."
Macron's Motivation
Macron had reportedly been contemplating this decision for months, despite the upcoming Paris Olympics from 26 July to 11 August. His primary objective was to break a political deadlock after failing to secure an absolute majority in the National Assembly in June 2022, which made passing laws challenging. He had to push through pension reforms without a vote and required National Rally support for tougher immigration rules. Macron argues that France needs a clear majority to act in "serenity and harmony," but this move has left French politics in turmoil.
His centrist alliance, composed of Renaissance, Horizons, and MoDem, is currently in third place, and his efforts to attract the center left have been unsuccessful. The Socialists have formed a New Popular Front with the Greens, far left France Unbowed (LFI), and Communists.
The Importance of These Elections
For the first time, the National Rally could potentially win power in France. The party, led by 28 year old Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen in parliament, has seen increasing support over the years. Polls suggest the party could become the largest in France, though still falling short of an absolute majority. A broad left wing alliance, including far left parties, is also a strong contender.
Understanding the French Election System
The National Assembly comprises 577 seats, including 13 overseas districts and 11 constituencies representing French expats. An absolute majority requires 289 seats. In the outgoing Assembly, Macron’s alliance had 250 seats, necessitating support from other parties to pass laws.
The first round eliminates candidates who fail to secure 12.5% of the vote. Any candidate who achieves 50% of the vote with at least 25% turnout wins automatically, although this occurs in only a few constituencies. The second round involves run offs, typically among two, three, or four candidates. Some candidates may withdraw before 7 July to improve an ally's chances against a rival, particularly from the far right.
Possible Outcomes
The two round system makes outcomes uncertain. Even if National Rally qualifies for the second round in numerous constituencies, voters might engage in tactical voting ("le vote utile") to prevent the party from winning. National Rally currently holds 88 seats, but polls indicate they could exceed 200.
Aside from opinion polls, the European election result is a key indicator, with National Rally achieving 31.37% of the vote and another far right party, Reconquête, gaining 5.47%. Some center right Republicans may support National Rally, while others might join efforts to block them. The combined vote for the left, Greens, and far left exceeded 30%, but not all left wing voters support the New Popular Front due to the involvement of Jean Luc Mélenchon’s far left France Unbowed (LFI).
Turnout will likely be much higher than the 51% in the 9 June European Parliament vote.
Implications if Macron's Party Loses
Regardless of the election outcome, Macron has stated he will not resign as president. If his party loses and either National Rally or the New Popular Front wins, it would lead to nearly three years of "cohabitation," where the president and the government come from different parties.
Jordan Bardella's Prospects as Prime Minister
Macron will decide the next government leader,
according to the constitution. However, if National Rally becomes the predominant party, choosing someone other than Bardella could be challenging. If RN wins an absolute majority, Bardella, at 28 and already a significant presence on TikTok and in the European Parliament since 2019, would be the obvious choice.
Bardella himself has ruled out becoming prime minister without an absolute majority, stating he doesn’t want to be the president’s assistant and would be unable to act effectively with only a relative majority.
Historical Context of Cohabitation in France
France has experienced cohabitation three times before, where the president and the prime minister came from different political parties.
1997 – 2002 - Socialist Lionel Jospin was prime minister under center right President Jacques Chirac.
1993 – 1995 - Center-right Prime Minister Edouard Balladur worked with Socialist President François Mitterrand.
1986 – 1988 - Jacques Chirac was prime minister under President François Mitterrand.
However, modern French politics have not prepared the country for potential cohabitation with the far right or elements of the far left.
National Rally's Transformation
Marine Le Pen has worked to detoxify her party from the antisemitic and extremist roots of its founder, her father Jean Marie Le Pen. Despite this, the National Rally’s strict anti immigration policies remain. France's highest administrative court confirmed earlier this year that it could be considered “extreme right.” French football captain Kylian Mbappé has warned that "the extremes are at the gates of power," highlighting the critical moment in France's history. Bardella, however, criticized such remarks, pointing out the struggles of ordinary people.
National Rally has also taken steps to soften its image, with Bardella stating that a ban on Muslim headscarves in public would not be a priority until the next presidential election. Although historically pro Kremlin and anti Nato, the party has dropped many of its extreme positions. Exiting the EU has not been on their agenda since 2022 instead, they focus on reducing VAT on essential goods and repealing Macron’s pension reforms.
The New Popular Front's Platform
The New Popular Front is an alliance of Socialists, Greens, Communists, and France Unbowed, promising to scrap Macron’s pension and immigration reforms. Their platform opposes the far right, with Macron accusing them of being overly permissive on immigration and promoting policies such as allowing gender changes at town halls, a point that has led to accusations of transphobia.
This leftist coalition also commits to fighting antisemitism, despite some far left candidates facing such accusations. As the elections approach, the outcomes remain uncertain, but the potential for significant shifts in French politics looms large.