Deepshikha Maan, Jadetimes Staff
D. Maan is a Jadetimes news reporter covering Israel Gaza War
The Impact of Nasrallah's Assassination: What Comes Next for Hezbollah, Israel, and Iran?
The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s long-time leader, represents a significant escalation in Israel’s conflict with the Lebanese militant group. This action could bring the region closer to a broader, more destructive conflict involving Iran and potentially the United States.
What Will Hezbollah Do Next?
Hezbollah is currently grappling with serious setbacks. The elimination of Nasrallah, alongside other high-ranking commanders, has disrupted its leadership and compromised its communications systems, with many of its weapons destroyed in Israeli airstrikes. According to Middle East security expert Mohammed Al-Basha, the loss of Nasrallah may destabilize Hezbollah and force shifts in its political and military strategies.
However, it is unlikely that Hezbollah will concede defeat. The group has vowed to continue fighting, backed by thousands of battle hardened fighters from its involvement in the Syrian conflict. Hezbollah also possesses a large stockpile of precision guided missiles, which are capable of reaching key Israeli cities like Tel Aviv. There will be growing internal pressure to use these missiles before they are destroyed by further Israeli strikes. If Hezbollah launches a significant missile offensive, overwhelming Israel's air defenses and causing civilian casualties, the Israeli response could be catastrophic, targeting Lebanese infrastructure or even extending to Iran.
Iran's Response: What Are the Options?
Iran, a major backer of Hezbollah, is deeply affected by Nasrallah’s death. Tehran has declared a five-day mourning period and taken steps to safeguard key figures like Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran has yet to respond to the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran earlier this year, and this recent blow will likely intensify calls for retaliation.
Iran could direct its network of proxy militias across the Middle East, including Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and groups in Syria and Iraq, to increase their attacks on Israeli and U.S. interests. However, Tehran is likely to calculate its response carefully to avoid sparking a full scale war, a conflict it knows would be difficult to win.
Israel's Strategy: Continuing the Offensive
Israel’s recent actions make it clear that a ceasefire is not on its agenda. Despite calls from international powers, including the United States, for a 21 day truce, Israel appears committed to maintaining its military pressure on Hezbollah. Israeli forces likely view Hezbollah as weakened and vulnerable and aim to neutralize the missile threat entirely.
However, achieving this goal without a ground invasion of southern Lebanon is improbable. Israeli troops are already training near the border in preparation for such an incursion. But Hezbollah has also spent years preparing for this very scenario. Before his assassination, Nasrallah described a potential Israeli invasion as "a historic opportunity" for his forces.
While entering Lebanon may be straightforward for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), extracting themselves could prove challenging. Much like the situation in Gaza, a prolonged and costly conflict could ensue, extending for months.
The future of this conflict largely depends on how Hezbollah, Iran, and Israel respond in the coming days. Hezbollah’s desire for revenge, Israel’s aggressive military posture, and Iran’s influence in the region all point to a dangerous escalation unless diplomatic efforts manage to regain some traction.
