By T. Jayani, JadeTimes News
As Russian President Vladimir Putin makes his first visit to North Korea in over two decades, his primary goal appears to be securing continued support from the isolated nation for Russia's ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Putin intensified his outreach to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un last year as Russia's weapons stockpiles dwindled. Since a pivotal summit in September, numerous governments have reported that munitions and missiles have been transferred from North Korea to Russia, despite denials from both Pyongyang and Moscow.
The meeting in Pyongyang, the Soviet style capital, offers an opportunity for the two autocrats to discuss expanding their cooperation, with implications extending beyond the Ukrainian battlefield. Putin’s early Wednesday arrival marks a significant advancement in a partnership built on mutual hostility toward the West and its allies, empowering both leaders and deepening global divides.
The leaders are expected to formalize a new strategic partnership agreement, with Putin stating they would "shape the architecture of equal and indivisible security in Eurasia," according to the Kremlin. Edward Howell, a lecturer in politics at the University of Oxford, notes that the relationship is not merely one of necessity but represents a unified front against the United States and the West.
The timing of the visit is notable, following Putin's recent meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and a G7 summit where democratic leaders reiterated their opposition to Russia's war. Concurrently, North Korea has been increasing its rhetoric and weapons testing in response to growing security cooperation between the US, South Korea, and Japan.
The specifics of what Pyongyang receives in return for its support remain unclear. However, observers will be closely watching for signs of the extent of Putin's support for Kim’s regime, which in the past Putin had opposed with international controls. North Korean munitions have been crucial for Russia, reportedly providing over 10,000 shipping containers, equivalent to 260,000 metric tons of munitions or related materials, since September. These supplies, although possibly of lower quality than Russia’s own, have been vital for replenishing its stockpiles.
North Korea benefits by gaining real world data on its weaponry’s effectiveness and potentially ramping up its exports. Putin has publicly thanked Pyongyang for its "unwavering support" and emphasized their mutual readiness to oppose the ambitions of the West.
While the exact compensation for North Korea's support is not fully known, South Korean officials suggest that shipments of food and other necessities have been sent to the sanctions strapped country. North Korea also seeks advancements in its space, missile, and nuclear programs. Putin indicated a willingness to aid in North Korea’s space and satellite program, evidenced by the successful launch of North Korea’s first military reconnaissance satellite, the “Malligyong 1,” after two failed attempts.
Any assistance from Putin, a leader of a UN Security Council permanent member state, significantly boosts Kim’s regime, which is deeply isolated internationally. For Putin, the visit signals that Russia is not isolated and emphasizes Russia’s resilience in the face of Western opposition.
John Erath, senior policy director for the Center for Arms Control and Non Proliferation, suggests Putin aims to show that Russia has allies and will not run out of weapons, possibly pushing Ukraine’s allies toward a negotiated settlement. Putin’s recent peace terms, including the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from partially occupied regions, have been dismissed by Kyiv and its allies as unacceptable.
Despite concerns about nuclear cooperation, experts believe Putin is unlikely to assist North Korea’s nuclear program directly. Nevertheless, the strengthened ties between Russia and North Korea complicate international efforts to control North Korea’s weapons program. Russia recently vetoed a UN resolution to renew an investigation into North Korea’s sanctions violations, with China abstaining.
The current divisions starkly contrast with previous decades of cooperation among Russia, China, and the US on nonproliferation efforts, highlighting a significant shift in global dynamics.
Former US Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, reflects on the cooperative efforts during the Obama administration, which are now entirely reversed, marking a new and troubling global landscape.